Retest or Rejection? Dollar Tests the Top While Metals Stay Under Pressure

After the early-week shakeout, markets are starting to show a more defined structure.

The dollar is back at recent highs (but still below key resistance), gold continues to extend lower, silver is holding (but barely), while platinum and palladium remain clearly under pressure.

In other words, some charts are testing strength and others are already confirming weakness. Therefore, today’s close may decide which side gains control next.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)

Double top… or a continuation higher?
That’s the first question that comes to mind when we take a look at the daily chart.

Despite Monday’s pullback, bulls managed to recover and push the dollar back toward last week’s highs, but here’s the key point: nothing has really changed yet. 

Why? Because the main resistance zone is still intact. Therefore, as long as we don’t see at least a daily close above 98.75 (the lower boundary of the April 8 bearish gap) the bullish case remains incomplete, and the path toward the psychological 100 level stays blocked. 

For bulls, the roadmap is clear: first - reclaim 98.75 and then - close the full gap with a move above 99.68. In our opinion, only then does the structure open up for a meaningful continuation higher. 

Until that happens? This is still a retest, not a breakout. 

Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 97.56-97.82 (green support zone) / 97.36
Resistances: 98.75-99.68 / 100

Gold (GC.F)

Let’s begin this section with yesterday’s quote: 

“(…) the path lower becomes much cleaner. 

With daily indicators still firmly on the sellers’ side, the most probable next destination would be the 4516 area in the coming session(s). (…)”

From today’s perspective, the bearish scenario continues to play out as expected. 

Sellers extended the move lower, pushing gold below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which keeps the downside structure fully active. 

And importantly… daily sell signals remain in place, which keeps pressure on the market.

(…) But what if that level fails to hold? → the rest of the analysis is available to Premium readers today.

Silver (SI.F) → this section is reserved for Premium readers today.

Platinum (PL.F) 

This chart is becoming very straightforward. 

New day - new bearish gap (1951-1958). When we add to that a break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and still-active sell signals, the conclusion is simple: the bearish scenario from Monday remains fully in play. 

There are no signs of stabilization yet. Therefore, as long as gaps remain open and price holds below key levels, sellers maintain full control.

“(…) as long as bulls fail to close that gap and reclaim the wedge, sellers retain control. 

What does that imply? A likely test of the next support zone at 1870-1842, where: 

• the minimum measured downside target
• meets the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

That creates a natural bearish magnet.(…)”

Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 1870-1842
Resistances: 2011-2038 / 2128-2165 / 2174-2204

Palladium (PA.F) → this section is reserved for Premium readers today.

Today’s Takeaway 

Dollar 

Bullish scenario: a close above 98.75 and continuation toward 99.68 opens the path toward 100.
Bearish scenario: failure to break resistance keeps the double top risk in play.
Key takeaway: this is still a test - not a confirmed breakout. 

Gold (…)

Silver (…)

Platinum 

Bullish scenario: closing the bearish gap would be the first sign of stabilization.
Bearish scenario: continued weakness keeps the downside scenario intact.
Key takeaway: clean bearish structure - no signs of reversal yet. 

Palladium (…)

Respect the levels, avoid the noise, and let the market come to you.
Anna