When Trends Speak Loud: Dollar Breaks, Gold Takes Control

Markets aren’t whispering anymore - they’re talking loud and clear.

The US Dollar just printed fresh multi-year lows, while gold continues to ride strong bullish momentum. This is the kind of environment where patience, levels, and daily closes matter more than emotions. 

USD Index (DX.F): Bears Stay in Control (for now)

Yesterday’s quote sets the tone for today and so let’s start there: 

“(…) If bulls fail to show real strength during today’s session - specifically by regaining and holding above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement - the path toward a test of the September lows remains wide open. 

Next key downside target? Support area around 95.85-96.25. (…) 

From today’s perspective, we see that bears once again had zero trouble delivering on our bearish scenario. The USD Index was pushed to its lowest level since February 2022, printing a fresh multi-year low at 95.44. 

Even though buyers managed to close the day back above the September low (an invalidation of the earlier breakdown), that fresh low clearly fired up bearish imagination, and today’s session opened with another red, bearish gap. 

What’s next?

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Today’s daily close will be the key: 

• If buyers manage to close today’s gap, their odds of slowing sellers increase. In that case, their next realistic objective for the rest of the week would likely be a move toward filling Monday’s large downside gap, which currently acts as the most important resistance. Such price action could translate into small pullbacks in the case of gold and silver. 
• If they fail, the path toward 95.00 remains wide open.

It’s worth noting that the 95 area also aligns with the dashed black support line based on previous lows visible on the weekly chart. This support managed to stop sellers back in July 2025, which makes it a technically important battlefield. 

If bulls fail there as well, the next downside target sits around 94.67-94.75, where multiple factors meet: 

• 127.2% Fibonacci extension (daily chart), 
• February 2022 lows, 
• the lower border of the black descending channel (weekly chart).

That zone represents the last solid line of defense for buyers.

Silver (SI.F) & Gold (GC.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.

Before we summarize today’s Lab Note, please note that earlier todaygold delivered both of our Monday’s upside targets right on schedule - clean execution, no noise. If you’re tired of reading about moves after they happen and want to be positioned before price accelerates, that’s exactly what the Premium version is built for.

Lab Takeaway - What Matters Today

USD Index: watch today’s close because another failed gap-close will keep downside pressure alive. 

Silver: as long as the price holds above key support levels and gaps stay open, bulls remain in the game. 

Gold: trend is still bullish across short-, medium- and long-term perspectives. (…)

Stay sharp, stay tactical.
Anna