Gold's Short Term Range
August 15, 2025 Investorideas.com (www.investorideas.com Newswire) a go-to platform for big investing ideas, including gold stocks issues market commentary from Dilin Wu Research Strategist at Pepperstone. I expect gold to remain in an elevated range between $3,300 and $3,400 in the short term, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate and no clear catalyst yet to break the deadlock.
For the bears, the White House's confirmation that it will not impose tariffs on gold has sharply eased market panic. The 90-day extension of the US-China trade pause, combined with the US waiving tariffs on Japan, and strong inflows into US equities, have all weighed on gold's safe-haven demand in the near term.
However, prices remain firmly above $3,300, driven by strong market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and concerns over the central bank's policy independence. Despite core CPI and PPI reflecting a sharp rebound in tariff-driven inflationary pressure - with July's record $28 billion in tariff revenue suggesting further deterioration - a softening labor market has kept the market's probability of a September cut above 90%.
Rate-cut bets directly support zero-yield assets like gold, while the tug-of-war between slowing growth and sticky prices sustains its safe-haven appeal. In addition, Trump's ever-expanding shortlist for the next Fed Chair is reinforcing the global de-dollarization narrative, further underpinning gold demand.
In my view, the $3,300-$3,400 range will likely hold for now, with trading direction hinging on data releases and geopolitical catalysts. The next potential decisive moves will depend on two questions: Can the US economy achieve a "soft landing" without triggering aggressive easing, and will geopolitical risks flare up again?
Two potential breakout triggers before September's FOMC meeting: If September 5's nonfarm payrolls come in at just 70-80k on a sustained basis and unemployment continues to rise, it could increase the probability of faster rate cuts - boosting safe-haven demand and pushing gold towards $3,400.
The second factor is geopolitics. If the US and Russia reach some form of agreement and Russia's crude exports are spared from "secondary sanctions," gold prices could come under short-term pressure. Conversely, if talks break down - or tensions spill over to major buyers of Russian oil - an escalation in geopolitical risks could once again lift gold.
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