Copper, Gold, Silver: Already Over the Cliff — Let's Enjoy the Flight
July 31, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) And the profits that it might bring.
Yesterday delivered the most spectacular validation of my Peak Chaos theory we've seen yet. While markets braced for maximum disruption from Trump's copper tariff ultimatum and the Fed's potentially dovish pivot, what unfolded instead was a masterclass in why chaos-driven market moves eventually exhaust themselves—and why the USD Index was destined to rally from here.
The copper market just experienced its most violent reversal in decades. Prices plunged over 20% in a single session—the largest daily drop on record—after Trump's supposedly "shocking" tariff announcement turned out to be far more bark than bite. Refined copper, the backbone of international trading, was completely exempted from the 50% tariffs, which will only apply to semi-finished products like pipes and wires.
This wasn't just any commodity selloff. This was the implosion of what Bloomberg called "one of the biggest trades of traders' lifetimes"—the massive rush to stockpile copper in US warehouses ahead of the tariff deadline. The Comex-London premium that had swelled to over 30% evaporated in hours, as the market suddenly realized that Trump's "nuclear option" was actually a precision strike that left the core copper trade flows untouched.
And… do you remember that technicals precede fundamentals? What we saw yesterday is in perfect tune with how copper formed major tops in the past — and in perfect tune with what I've been expecting it to do.
Every now and then, I get messages from people saying that the technical analysis no longer works or that situations from the past can't provide us with analogies to what we currently see, because the world that we have right now is different...
This time, we got the trigger in the form of Trump announcing that the key part of copper imports will be exempt from tariffs — but more on that later today...
It took just a single day for copper to invalidate its move above its 2011 high and break below its rising support line...
What did copper do next in all those previous cases? It declined. In a MAJOR way.
And the best (worst?) part? Gold, silver, and mining stocks declined along with it. Also in a MAJOR way.
...That's exactly how huge rallies started — slow at first, and then the weekly rallies were big and decisive.
The above chart shows that the rally is just getting started — the weekly RSI is still below 50...
It also invalidated a small breakdown below its rising, long-term support line...
On a short-term basis, we even see a breakout above the short-term trading channel...
...With the USD Index at its May highs, we might see GDXJ close to its May lows in the near future.
Meanwhile, platinum plunged as well.
On July 18, I wrote that platinum was likely topping at $1,500, and yesterday, I wrote the following:
“Finally, platinum just failed to rally back above its June high, and it moved back below it...”
There are two events that could trigger further moves:
1. Today's interest-rate decision from the Fed...
2. The August 1 tariff deadline / implementation...
It turned out that yesterday's turmoil was enough to trigger the slide...
As always, I will keep my subscribers informed.
...I invite you to subscribe to my Gold Trading Alerts.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
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