Another Significant Reversal

Published on Oct 9, 2025

(Investorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 was forming a bear flag on the hourly, in continuation of Tuesday‘s reversal, and then the sidewyas grind higher turned into steady buying that lasted through the opening part of the regular session.

Such was the premium intraday update I‘ve published before the opening bell for clients – one that had to see adaptation to the steady pace of buying in equities before midsession:

(…) S&P 500 pushed (hesitantly) higher Monday and somewhat tuesday too – and then the reversal came. Was it ORCL news (I should say rather rumor), or the decisive reversal in short-term yields pushing higher? The common denominator is risk-off striking as can be seen from other (incl. sectoral) ratios and characteristics.

Meanwhile, there is no stopping gold – with silver and copper chugging along nicely. Uranium was undecided last two days, but that‘s no end to its uptrend – and the same can be said about Bitcoin. Just take it (BTC, crypto) as manifestation of the leveraged nature as regards „NDX triple long ETF“ if I may pick this comparison (except that it doesn‘t decay that badly in value overnight, BTC is no USO or UNG etc).

Simply put, a period of choppy equities‘ trading is ahead, and Nasdaq is likely to underperform S&P 500. Should Russell 2000 start to decline faster than S&P 500, then that would be worrying. Thus far no sign thereof, so the most likely scenario is the sideways one – with rotations lifting up defensive sectors vs. tech or discretionaries. Bonds are likely to rise (so will USD), and over time, that would work in the equity risk premium equation the equities‘ way.

Such a yields‘ move is favorable for precious metals, and gold is to continue building upon the steady rise as of Monday – it faces some consolidation in intraday terms during today‘s session. Silver is looking better, provided we do not get in intraday terms a retracement of over half of today‘s ascent – I would be less strict as regards copper (it can retrace more). Long-term case is though very clear – and it‘s pleasant that oil is basing above $62 area – it‘s part of the risk-off whiff markets are going through now.

Bias is to sell NDX rips, and/or buy ES dips on momentum returning / bullish divergences with accompanying bid.

So, where do markets stand now?

Premarket, S&P 500 is doing a bit better than tech, and for all the FOMC minutes confirmation of rate cuts, Russell 2000 is merely consolidating and crawling back from decline earlier in the week, still below last week‘s highs – unlike S&P 500, unlike S&P 500.

US Dollar index chart showing breakout above September highs with technical indicators confirming upward trend, suggesting continued USD strength amid rising deficit spending.

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Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article contains 4 more of them, with commentaries.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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