SPX Bounces, But Is There More Pain Ahead?
March 3, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 duly rose Friday as called, with core PCE in line and perosnal income (if not spending) rising - clients were ready as this is what I wrote for them in the daily article before the opening bell Friday:
(...) Risk-on day prediction stood no chance against tariff news, but made it through the incoming data reasonably well. Today's core PCE sets the stage for relief rally nicely developing, but there isn't yet a truly scary flush in (it's questionable when or whether we get it). Today's outlook is bullish. And 5,955 will act as first really serious resistance.
Let's revisit yesterday's 4hr chart before the breakdown, check it on 5min TF, and finally the premarket action on the hourly. Unless XLF rolls over as well, that would detract from the necessity of a way deeper flush coming - looking also at XLC with META and NFLX.
What though matters is answering whether this is an oversold bounce, true bottom, or whether there is more pain ahead (such as if the rebound turns into a bear flag). I've shared a detailed analysis Saturday on the daily Youtube channel (thanks for liking and subscribing), starting with yields, strengthening dollar, and then stocks and crypto prospects.
The leading trouble for equities is the sheer uncertainty from tariffs (undeprinning USD amid getting scarcer liquidity - textbook dollar hoarding), divided consumer perceptions (less willingness to spend amid differing views on inflation and economy prospects along the political lines) as if there weren't as of past Friday a serious whiff of stagflationary data (continuing Tue with CB consumer confidence). The was though all about tariffs Thursday that nipped in the bud the very promising recovery after NVDA earnings. Still, the table is set for a risk-on rally to continue in both equities and crypto as was the subject of my most brief Sunday's video. Very timely call, a few short hours before the strategic reserve announcement taking Bitcoin through $93K support turned resistance (very concentrated push, retrenching now). Good for MSTR, COIN, and also HOOD.
Then there is Eastern Europe peace uncertainty, and looming government shutdown - this would work to extend pressure on yields to retreat further as per extensive Saturday's video - TLT, TLH will rise in such an environment, and unless the Fed starts providing liquidity (not really the case now), it'll lead to crowding out private investment globally through the money being sucked into Treasuries. Anyway, I see more job market weakness in the weeks ahead - and XLP outperforming XLY is but one sign of defensive posture.
Anyway, we had a great week - here are some charts to set the tone for following in-depth premium analysis. Today's in-depth video has more insights as to equities, gold and Bitcoin with USD. Bond prices aren't rising today, which will have consequence discussed below as much as the reason why DAX is rising today premarket.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed with my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) - combine with subscribing to extras on my daily Youtube channel (turn notifications on) and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there) - but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and make use of Twitter, Telegram and Youtube - benefit and find out why I'm for years the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.
Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article contains 5 more of them, with commentaries.
Tired of seeing those red boxes instead of way more valuable information? Try the premium services based on what and how you trade, with my 1:1 support - great community where clients come always first.
Thank you for having read today's free analysis, which is a small part of my site's daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. Forget not the lively intraday Telegram channels for indices, stocks, gold and oil - here is how you can join any advantageous combination of these.
Go beyond the free Monica's Insider Club serving instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing - such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Thank you,
Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals
Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals
www.monicakingsley.co
mk@monicakingsley.co
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
More Info:
Disclaimer/Disclosure: Investorideas.com is a digital publisher of third party sourced news, articles and equity research as well as creates original content, including video, interviews and articles. Original content created by investorideas is protected by copyright laws other than syndication rights. Our site does not make recommendations for purchases or sale of stocks, services or products. Nothing on our sites should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell products or securities. All investing involves risk and possible losses. This site is currently compensated for news publication and distribution, social media and marketing, content creation and more. Disclosure is posted for each compensated news release, content published /created if required but otherwise the news was not compensated for and was published for the sole interest of our readers and followers. Contact management and IR of each company directly regarding specific questions.
More disclaimer info: https://www.investorideas.com/About/Disclaimer.asp Learn more about publishing your news release and our other news services on the Investorideas.com newswire https://www.investorideas.com/News-Upload/
Global investors must adhere to regulations of each country. Please read Investorideas.com privacy policy: https://www.investorideas.com/About/Private_Policy.asp