Stocks Set to React to CPI Data - Another Pullback Ahead?
February 12, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Stock prices remained little changed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 index closing just 0.03% higher than Monday. The market continued to move sideways despite Fed Chair Powell's testimony. Today, the market is expected to open lower following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which came in higher than expected at +0.5% month-over-month. S&P 500 futures are trading 1.0% lower, indicating a sharp drop at the open.
Investor sentiment has recently worsened, as shown by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 33.3% of individual investors are bullish, while 42.9% of them are bearish.
The S&P 500 index continues to trade below the 6,100 level, as we can see on the daily chart.
Nasdaq 100 Keeps Fluctuating
The Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.29% on Tuesday, extending its short-term consolidation below resistance at 21,800-22,000. Support remains at around 21,500, marked by last Friday's low.
Today, the Nasdaq 100 is expected to open 1.1% lower, suggesting further consolidation.
VIX Remained Near 16
The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, rebounded from 15 last Friday, reaching 16.66. It continues to fluctuate with local highs above 20 on January 27 and February 3, still indicating a lack of fear in the market.
Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, and rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns. However, the lower the VIX, the higher the probability of the market's downward reversal. Conversely, the higher the VIX, the higher the probability of the market's upward reversal.
S&P 500 Futures Contract: Lower After CPI Data
This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is pulling back from the 6,100 level following the consumer inflation report.
Resistance remains around 6,100-6,120, while support is now around 6,000-6,020.
Conclusion
Stocks are set to open significantly lower following today's CPI data. No confirmed negative signals have emerged, but stocks continue to fluctuate following post-election rally.
On Monday, in my Stock Price Forecast for January 2025, I noted "...recent rallies have provided selling opportunities. What will February bring? The earnings season is in full swing, likely adding to volatility. Political developments are increasing uncertainty. The market's ongoing consolidation since November may be forming a medium-term topping pattern ahead of some more meaningful downward correction. However, no confirmed bearish signals have appeared yet."
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here's the breakdown:
- The S&P 500 is likely to pull back after the CPI report.
- The stock market is still seeing increased volatility following the post-election rally.
- In my opinion, the short-term outlook is neutral.
The full version of today's analysis - today's Stock Trading Alert - is bigger than what you read above, and it includes the additional analysis of the Apple (AAPL) stock and the current S&P 500 futures contract position. I encourage you to subscribe and read the details today (with a single-time 16-day free trial). Stocks Trading Alerts are also a part of our Diamond Package that includes Gold Trading Alerts and Oil Trading Alerts.
And if you're not yet on our free mailing list, I strongly encourage you to join it - you'll stay up-to-date with our free analyses that will still put you ahead of 99% of investors that don't have access to this information. Join our free stock newsletter today.
More Info:
Disclaimer/Disclosure: Investorideas.com is a digital publisher of third party sourced news, articles and equity research as well as creates original content, including video, interviews and articles. Original content created by investorideas is protected by copyright laws other than syndication rights. Our site does not make recommendations for purchases or sale of stocks, services or products. Nothing on our sites should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell products or securities. All investing involves risk and possible losses. This site is currently compensated for news publication and distribution, social media and marketing, content creation and more. Disclosure is posted for each compensated news release, content published /created if required but otherwise the news was not compensated for and was published for the sole interest of our readers and followers. Contact management and IR of each company directly regarding specific questions.
More disclaimer info: https://www.investorideas.com/About/Disclaimer.asp Learn more about publishing your news release and our other news services on the Investorideas.com newswire https://www.investorideas.com/News-Upload/
Global investors must adhere to regulations of each country. Please read Investorideas.com privacy policy: https://www.investorideas.com/About/Private_Policy.asp