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Global markets winners and losers in first half of 2025 - and what's next this year?

"Defense, AI technology, and financials aligned with local fiscal expansion are the sectors we're watching closely"

July 10, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Investorideas.com, a go-to platform for big investing ideas, including defense and A! stocks issues market commentary from deVere Group.

Global stock markets have powered through the first half of 2025, with the MSCI All Country World Index rising nearly 10% since January to hit a record high on July 4.

However, the headline number masks a far more complex picture of divergence-and a clear reshuffling of global investor priorities- warns Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

"The standout winners weren't the usual suspects," he says.

"Greece up 60%, Poland 56%, Czech Republic 52%, South Korea over 30%. This is a major reordering of global equity leadership; and it's being driven by policy, valuation gaps, and geopolitical recalibration."

While the US has rebounded in absolute terms, it trails its global peers by a significant margin.

Nigel Green continues: "Investors, spooked by President Trump's aggressive tariff policy and erratic economic messaging, shifted billions out of American assets in the early months of the year.

"Much of that capital rotated into Europe and select emerging markets-regions that had previously lagged but are now enjoying their moment in the sun.

"Europe has staged the most meaningful market renaissance we've seen in over a decade.

"The pivot away from austerity, coordinated fiscal support, and a powerful rotation away from US exposure created the conditions. Add to that a rally in bank stocks, and booming defense investment, and you have the formula for sustained outperformance."

Greece leads the pack, with banks exceeding earnings expectations and the economy buoyed by a revived tourism sector and successful early repayment of bailout loans. Poland and the Czech Republic surged on the back of industrial competitiveness and robust domestic demand, while Spain, Italy and Germany all featured prominently among the global top performers.

By comparison, the US looks less impressive. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh highs, but market breadth remains narrow, and valuations are stretched.

"The S&P is up about 7%, but that's been carried by just a handful of mega-cap tech names," Nigel Green notes.

"Without a wider base of participation, the risk of fragility grows. The market looks strong-but it isn't broad."

Asia's story is more mixed-but South Korea has emerged as the region's breakout winner.

The KOSPI rallied more than 30% despite steep US tariffs on Korean exports and domestic political upheaval. Key sectors such as shipbuilding and AI chip manufacturing have seen booming demand, while the election of a reformist president has triggered renewed optimism over long-stalled governance reforms.

China also staged a recovery, gaining over 17% year-to-date on yuan appreciation and measured policy support. However, growth remains uneven, and stimulus remains cautious.

"It's a recovery, but not a roaring one," explains the deVere CEO.

At the other end of the table, Thailand and Turkey were among the worst performers globally.

Thailand's 13% decline reflects political instability, a sluggish post-pandemic recovery in tourism, and auto-sector vulnerability to tariffs. Turkey's stock markets remain plagued by capital flight, inflation, and mounting political repression, with the lira down nearly 13% against the dollar since January.

Looking forward, Nigel Green sees opportunity-but not uniformly.

"Europe still has legs-particularly in undervalued small caps and the banking sector-but earnings pressures are starting to show.

"In the US, tech will remain dominant, but unless we see broadening participation, upside could be capped.

"South Korea continues to look attractive, while China could surprise on the upside if policymakers loosen further."

He also underscores the role of central banks.

"The ECB has already cut rates. The Fed is likely to follow. Liquidity is coming back into the system-but it isn't likely to be evenly distributed."

Nigel Green stresses that selectivity will be essential. "Defense, AI technology, and financials aligned with local fiscal expansion are the sectors we're watching closely. But this isn't a time to go passive. Regional divergences are growing, and asset rotation is accelerating."

He concludes: "Don't assume the next six months will mirror the first. We're moving into a more fragmented, politically fraught market environment. The capital rotation we saw earlier this year could reverse again. A rebound in US confidence, deeper stimulus in China, or political shocks in Europe could all shift the playing field dramatically.

"Markets are adjusting not just to data, but to power shifts, tariffs, and fiscal identities.

"For those prepared to act boldly, with precision and discipline, the second half of 2025 offers substantial opportunity."

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