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Bitcoin Shows Short-Term Weakness Amid Macro Headwinds, But Mid-Term Outlook Remains Positive

July 21, 2025 Investorideas.com (www.investorideas.com) a go-to platform for big investing ideas, including bitcoin stocks issues market commentary from Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com.

Bitcoin (BTC) has just recorded its third consecutive daily decline and is currently trading around the $117,000 level, marking a mild pullback after setting a new all-time high at $122,120. This development suggests that the recent bullish momentum has temporarily stalled, as market sentiment turns cautious following a strong rally that began in mid-June.

Last week was a pivotal one, marked by the release of several key U.S. economic indicators � notably the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales figures, and jobless claims. The overall picture reflects a mixed trend: while CPI and retail sales saw strong increases � indicating that inflation is diverging from expectations but the U.S. economy remains resilient � the decline in PPI suggests that input inflation pressures are easing.

This divergence reinforces the reality that inflation has yet to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, leading to a further erosion in expectations for a rate cut this year. This shift in sentiment has been immediately reflected in the currency markets, strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting downward pressure on assets like Bitcoin.

Beyond economic factors, geopolitical risks remain a critical variable. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza, alongside ongoing U.S.-China frictions, have increased global uncertainty. In such an environment, demand for risk hedging has risen, but not sufficiently to drive significant capital inflows into the crypto market, as investors still favor liquidity and the short-term safety of the USD.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin continues to be underpinned by solid institutional inflows, particularly via spot Bitcoin ETFs. Recent data shows that these funds are still experiencing net inflows, reflecting sustained institutional interest despite short-term technical pullbacks. This is a crucial factor supporting Bitcoin's positive mid- to long-term outlook.

Taken together, the current environment suggests that Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy consolidation phase, driven mainly by profit-taking and the USD's rebound. At the same time, the persistent institutional interest and ongoing development of crypto ETF products are building a solid foundation for long-term growth.

Unless a significant macroeconomic shock occurs, Bitcoin's mid-term prospects remain constructive, with the potential to retest and surpass the previous high around $122,120 � and possibly extend to new record levels in the coming quarters.

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