Risk-On It's Trump Trades
November 6, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Markets did a good job positioning for election results - the upswing in yields coinding with S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (smallcaps took less than 15min after the opening bell to recover) was the telltale, providing for most easy (you may say almost risk-free) intraday long gains in ES and NDX well before the voting ended.
No trepidation or flush came as results started trickling in - apart from the below summary of what election results mean for the markets and economy, I've highlighted the USD upswing (against both the euro and yen), headwind for China stocks, and in general the inflation trades benefiting as markets count on more national debt coupled with protectionist policies. Hello, industrials.
I'll be featuring the usual comprehensive daily set of charts only tomorrow as the digestion of election results will be most insightful after a full day of US trading - be ready for plenty of live updates across Telegram and Twitter, as you're used to after all the years and as fits my style. I'll just feature the dollar chart of the moment (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) and say it's not yet the time to start catching the falling knife in real assets.
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Let's mve right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article contains 5 more of them, with commentaries.
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq
S&P 500 had the upper resistance od 5,773, and today's one is at 5,755 - given the contradictory signs (XLU decline though can be attributed to nuclear energy for data centers new development around AMZN, and that bucked XLRE upswing as rate cut odds for this week further rose, and I don't think Powell would dare to disappoint) and XLC, XLY and XLK mildly negative with XLE the greatest winner (energy itself cannot sustain bull markets indefinitely), I favor the sellers, especially should 5,755 break down with conviction during the regular session - pretty trendless thus far.
Much live coverage as always on Telegram and Twitter.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gently bullish bias in first gold, then silver, followed by a pronounced move - that's how today is shaping up. Downside protection of recent gains - if you hadn't protected them late last week before the slide as I urged you to do - is going to be the winning recipe as well, because in gold too there has been elections positioning evident.
As for copper, I called for its slow basing turning into upswing, to go on - and here we are, it has accelerated yesterday, and continues today.
Crude Oil
Crude oil won't truly retreat today, the balance of all news (OPEC+ included) favors slow grind higher.
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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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