Chilean Economy Under Pressure Despite Positive Performance as Copper Demand Weakens
October 29, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Investorideas.com (www.investorideas.com), a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Quasar Elizundia,Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
"The Chilean peso continues to face pressures despite recent positive labor data, which showed a reduction in the unemployment rate to 8.7%, below the market expectations of 8.9%. The figure, corresponding to the quarter from July to September 2024, reflects a 0.2 percentage point annual decrease. However, the Chilean peso lost nearly one percent during the day, breaking the key level of 960 pesos per dollar, which could pave the way for further weakness. The early-year highs of around 990 pesos seem to be the next target for the Chilean currency.
The peso's inability to strengthen, despite better-than-expected labor data, highlights the challenges facing the Chilean economy within a challenging global context. Recent news from China, Chile's main trading partner, has also not favored the local currency. Despite the announcement of a $1.4 trillion stimulus package from Beijing, China's industrial profits dropped by 27.1%, indicating weaker copper demand-a crucial factor for the Chilean economy. This situation could continue to weigh on the Chilean peso in the coming months.
In the short term, the peso's performance could depend on the upcoming economic indicators in Chile, such as copper production, industrial output, and retail sales. Stronger data could provide some support for the currency, but the influence of external factors, like the performance of the U.S. dollar, will also be crucial. A strong labor market and steady growth in the United States could continue to strengthen the dollar, increasing pressure on the Chilean peso.
Lastly, the influence of the upcoming U.S. elections on the volatility of the Chilean peso cannot be overlooked. Uncertainty about the direction of the global economy and potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy could add further pressure on the currency. In summary, while local data offer some positive signals, external challenges remain significant for the Chilean peso.
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