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SPY Readying a Push

 

September 24, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 produced a tight range day - no news or catalyst for breakout or breakdown. Sectoral view doesn't allow me to decisively favor either side in the very near term as stocks have weathered the rise in yields so far very well. Confined to a range with bears unwilling to drive prices below 5,755, and with the 50bp cut well taken already (Kashkari reassured yesterday too), the most pronounced warning sign is probably the Russell 2000 underperformance last couple of days.

Sure the market is complacent, but it would need very underwhelming data from unemployment claims / GDP (prices) to today's manufacturing (I am not counting on weak consumer confidence) to force a correction. As I wrote Sunday, consumer discretionaries have a message regarding recession...

(...) as regards Nov, there is almost a 50% chance of 50bp cut, but I'm not jumping the gun to predict it now as done deal, but it sounds more likely than 25bp. Powell's focus will turn increasingly to the job market - after the recent massive adjustments on the job creation side for practically all of 2024, I think the next couple of weeks as a minimum would feature good news on the unemployment claims front (meaning less than 250K initial claims) as we're entering a seasonally stronger few months, and consumer discretionaries chart has also a message to say. Still, markets will demand another 50bp cut in Nov..

Yield curve uninversion and recession? No, not this year, I still don't think so.



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Let's mve right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article contains 5 more of them, with commentaries.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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