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Euro Weakens Post Euro Area PMI

Today market analysis on behalf of Robert Brown, Head of Strategic Development at MAS Markets.


June 21, 2024 ( Newswire) The euro continues to decline as weaker-than-expected June PMI figures have sparked concerns about the Euro Area's economic health and prompted speculation of further ECB interest rate cuts. Flash PMIs showed a contraction in manufacturing as the Eurozone index fell from 47.3 to 45.6, below the expected 47.9 points. Germany's PMI dropped from 45.4 to 43.4, missing the market consensus of 46.4 points, while France saw a decline from 46.4 to 45.3, against expectations of 46.8 points. Unexpected slowdowns also occurred in the services sectors, with Germany's index decreasing from 54.2 to 53.5 and France's from 49.3 to 48.8 points. These downturns weighed on the Euro, keeping the currency near seven-week lows. This comes in addition to a start in interest rate cuts from the ECB.

Trading volume in Euro FX Futures spiked ahead of today's PMI data release in the Euro Area. Despite steady volatility, the euro-dollar has maintained a monthly trading range of 202 to 283 pips since January. Open interest on the Euro Futures contract declined from a recent peak of nearly 810,000 contracts, settling at 634,412 for the most actively traded September contract.

The currency could see an increase in volatility during next week as traders react to new data on business and consumer confidence in Germany and the euro area as well as comments from ECB members. The results of French treasury bond auctions could also affect sentiment toward the euro amid local political concerns.

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