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Non Farm Payrolls Jump And Push The Markets

Today’s market analysis on behalf of Michael Brown Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone

 

June 7, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) The May US jobs report was something of a mixed bag, with a blowout +272k headline nonfarm payrolls print beating all forecasts being somewhat overshadowed by a net -15k revision to the prior two months of data, in addition to a surprising rise in unemployment to 4.0%, the highest since January 2022. Despite this, the report overall contained a hawkish bias, with hiring continuing apace, and earnings also growing at a hotter-than-expected 0.4% MoM, and 4.1% YoY, indicating that the labour market at large remains relatively tight. Unsurprisingly, the market reaction has been an aggressively hawkish one, with Treasuries and equities both slumping, as the dollar rallies to fresh day highs.

On the whole, however, the May employment report seems unlikely to be a game-changer in terms of the Fed policy outlook. FOMC members continue, unsurprisingly, to place greater weight on the inflation side of the dual mandate, and are likely to reiterate next week that they are yet to obtain the 'confidence' being sought on a return towards the 2% target to enable the first rate cut to be delivered. As such, the May CPI report, also due next Wednesday, is likely to be a much more significant event, particularly after the core CPI metric fell, on an annual basis, to a near 3-year low in April. Furthermore, Chair Powell has indicated that only 'unexpected' labour market weakness would necessitate a policy response; this report indicates that there are few signs of that significant weakness emerging just yet.

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