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USD Awaits PCE Data, Euro Stable Ahead Of Lagarde

Today's market analysis on behalf of Daniel Takieddine CEO MENA at BDSwiss


March 25, 2024 ( Newswire) In early Monday trading, the dollar index was under some pressure following last week's rally. Traders could exercise caution as they await one of the week's most pivotal data releases, the U.S. PCE price index report for February, scheduled for Friday. This report serves as the Federal Reserve's primary gauge of inflation. Market consensus expects February's Core PCE Price Index MoM to decrease to 0.3% from January's 0.4%. This anticipated decline suggests a moderation in inflationary pressures, potentially impacting the greenback's performance in the short term. However, optimism surrounding February's Durable Goods Orders MoM figures, set to be released tomorrow, may provide support to the dollar, with expectations of a 1% increase compared to January's -6.1% figure.

Meanwhile, the euro was seeing slight gains in early trading. Last week's remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde, emphasizing data-driven decision-making and cautioning against predetermined rate paths, influenced market sentiment and could support the currency. However, money markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts due to slowing inflation and subdued economic growth. Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech today, where the market will scrutinize for signals of potential further rate cuts. The latter could put downward pressure on the European currency.

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