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Yields Hold the Key


January 17, 2024 ( Newswire) S&P 500 confirmed the conclusion from yesterday's article, and the US session brought the first opportunity for bottom formation. At the same time, the rallies are still being sold into statement, proved correct as well, and nowhere it's clearer than in GS inability to keep good gains on earnings beat, general XLF weakness (careful with financials, coming sessions would provide a better entry point than they're at now), and aftermarket optimism on semiconductors upgrade failing to hold.

S&P 500 breadth is narrowing, industrials and regional banks dizzying, with just real estate and semiconductors with select tech plays holding still well. Interest rates are biting, and have already made it to my first yields target, now facing a fresh test there, and USD is also almost at my 103.50 amid quite some mixed interpreted central bank talk - last week's odds of Jan rate cut were 4.7% and now that's 2.6% only (fine advanced litmus test of what to expect for Mar, where I look for 25bp only still) - that works much against smallcaps and most of non-tech.

This is how I summed up the situation before the close yesterday in our channel.

What follows, is yesterday's example of higher volume, noticeable lower knot (wick) that buyers want to see forming on the 4 hour chart, the sooner the better.

That's what we didn't see formed premarket, and here's my summary at the onset of European session.

So, how close to rising yields and rising dollar rejection are we?

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) - combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of - today's full scale article contains 5 of them, featuring S&P 500, precious metals and oil.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

Market breadth reveals the extent of damage inflicted yesterday, repairing which requires yields and dollar cooperation. I don't view though selling panic developing as anyhow imminent - UVXY with VIX retreated somewhat as well, and put to call ration spike hasn't been challenged yesterday either.

Thank you for having read today's free analysis, which is a small part of my site's daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.

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Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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