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Oil price expectations amid risk sentiments and supply increase/h1>

Today's market analysis on behalf of Rania Gule Market Analyst at XS.com

 

February 23, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Crude oil (WTI) is trading at $77.16 per barrel, while Brent crude is trading at $81.81 per barrel during today's Friday trading. Oil prices have dropped by approximately 1% after Iraq announced the reopening of a refinery that had been closed for ten years. This comes amid expectations that OPEC+ countries will not decide on significant production cuts, even though they indicated a likely extension of voluntary production cuts beyond the first quarter of the year. However, no major additional supply reductions are expected.

This coincides with a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (USDIDX) this week, as stocks experienced a significant recovery, with several indicators trading at all-time highs. Traders are looking ahead to the upcoming week, which will be filled with important data that can significantly impact the market and determine market trends.

I believe that oil prices are not giving much importance to any new geopolitical risks in the Middle East but are influenced by economic events and news. The London Energy Forum 2024 summit is scheduled for Monday and Tuesday next week, an event that usually grabs headlines with decisions from major leaders of international oil companies. Following that will be the International Energy Week from Tuesday to Friday.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported another increase in changes to U.S. crude oil inventories, with an additional 12.018 million barrels from the previous increase plus an additional 3.514 million barrels for this week. Traders will be watching for any repetition of new sanctions tightening by the United States and the European Union on oil-related to Russia and other parties in countries accused of trading Russian oil.

In my view, geopolitical tensions eased slightly yesterday, as there is evidence that hostage exchanges and potential ceasefire negotiations are still on the table in the ongoing Gaza conflict. However, tensions escalated immediately after the Houthi rebels in Yemen announced their intention to continue targeting civilian ships in the Red Sea, escalating the rate of attacks, now including U.S. and UK-owned ships that may cross the Suez Canal. This could lead to a long-term increase in oil prices.

Technical Analysis of the Oil (WTI) Prices:

Oil prices are attempting to rise to $80, as traders brace for the U.S. and European Union sanctions package set to be issued today, Friday, against Russia. These sanctions are not only against Russia but also against some Chinese and Indian entities alleged to be assisting Russia. Despite the technical breakthrough in the price chart, oil has not been able to sustain the increase. Therefore, the return to $90 or even $85 seems elusive at the moment.

Oil (WTI) - Prices Chart --XS.com MT4.

From a technical standpoint, the $80 level remains a pivotal price level, with $79.66 as the initial resistance level that must be breached for the upward trend to continue. If the Relative Strength Index (RSI) does not quickly move into the overbought zone, the price could reach $84.58 and $89.64 as subsequent targets in the upward direction. The ultimate target in this upward wave is expected to be $92.69 based on the sequence of peaks from November 2022.

On the negative side, the main support is supposed to be at the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $74.20 before testing the ascending trendline near $72.93. If this trendline is breached, the next support is near $67.11, and breaking this level is necessary to continue any downward movement. With the triple bottom observed in June and July 2023, this level is expected to be strong enough to support a price rebound.

Support levels: $77.15 - $76.40 - $75.20

Resistance levels: $77.60 - $78.50 - $79.73

More Info:


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