Powell to the Rescue
October 19, 2023 (Investorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 coudln't defend 4,392, and 4,365 only temporarily provided support. On bond market fears, 4,354 gave way - but jubilation over a good auction, didn't last. Tech stocks barely provided a refuge, and semiconductors didn't catch breath yesterday.
Yet I wonder whether these bearish signs would hold for long, as EURUSD is cushioning any yields triggered downswing attempt. Q3 earnings aren't proving that bad, retail sales came strong while housing was mixed - too many cyclicals with Russell 2000 were beaten yesterday, so we can look for a rebound attempt. The tentative longs in the intraday channel are looking good.
Too early yet to say whether in the very short term it would be one of a dead cat bounce variety, but I think this has lower probability than a local bottom being put in - why and what to watch, I'm explaining in the premium chart section. I'm still of the opinion that Q4 is to bring seriously higher stock prices, and that S&P 500 is holding up well in the Mideast turmoil.
The weak spot is the Treasuries market, where no retreat from yesterday's 4.90% brings my 5.10% - 5.20% technically doable 10y yield call, ever closer over the coming weeks.
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Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article contains 5 of them.
Stocks and Sectors
NFLX and XLC would reverse latest weakness, and take on $390 shortly.
Credit Markets
Bond market is indeed intent on doing more tightening for the Fed, and shows risks of going a little parabolic in the days ahead. On some days, that would hurt stocks more than on others - today, it'll be one of lesser impact days - the best ones for stocks though are to be those of noticeably retreating yields (4.40% would be a technical target for the months ahead).
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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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