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SPY, Yields Top and China


August 16, 2023 ( Newswire) Similarly to Thu CPI, S&P 500 couldn't maintain a modest retracement following the disappointing manufacturing data, but still strong retail sales. Tech failed to react to the reversal in yields (10y back to 4.21% on the close yesterday, and retreating even more today) - arguably the decline was less of a result of banking downgrades echo than it was thanks to the China rate cut, liquidity mop up (preparations to defend CNY), and growing risks within the shadow banking sectors as much as growth prospects. Hence the renewed calls for increasing domestic Chinese consumption.

Today's housing and industrial data would come in mixed - permits may still rise while starts would be sputtering, and industrial production and capacity utilization wouldn't be a stark disappointment in the least. Just enough to keep soft landing hopes alive while throwing a bone to Fed pivot callers - such is my prognosis and another Intraday Signals call it led to.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) - combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of - today's full scale article contains 4 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

4,487 - 4,492 is a pipe dream when stocks are probing, probing a breakdown below the key trendline described in the caption. Tech certainly missed 4,435 - 4,440 is a key area to defend - especially since yields peaked yesterday - well, only to get tested again today premarket, which is to keep a lid on appreciation, but 4,460 is reachable provided that 10y goes below 4.20% again. The bias is for a retracement higher following the market open.

Crude Oil

Crude oil is resting for now, and I wouldn't expect a significant move over the next two days. All details are in the caption - slowly digesting recent sharp gains and crucially still having to adjust to the disappointing China data where indicatively even some funds are asked to forego selling stocks at the moment… If you remember the bank shares shorting ban of 2008, that didn't help the sector in the least...

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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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