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ES Correction Starts

 

May 23, 2023 (Investorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 rejected further upside, and is ready for correction within this upswing - the correction characteristics would determine the path forward as hearing Bullard talk two more rate hikes wasn't something the market had discounted. 2y yield rose to 5.40% , and 10y is above the midpoint of its recent range at 3.72% - yet stocks are holding up so far, and especially tech, Big Tech is ignoring the glaring disconnect to TLT - these two usually go hand in hand, but GOOGL, MSFT and AAPL with NVDA are still holding up. Talking the last two, there is some short-term technical vulnerability (as in suspect series of latest daily candles) showing up, and I wonder how much more nosebleed for NVDA can come following its earnings tomorrow after the close.

Today is shaping up on a risk-off note, reflecting the poor European manufacturing data that has already pushed many real assets towards my corrective targets. Meanwhile, the long-dated Treasuries outlook is going to change in the following weeks - the run higher will be though more muted than otherwise would have been thanks to the Fed no longer being the buyer, and Treasury General Account replenisment needs following debt ceiling resolution, which would work to suck some liquidity off the market place.

Recession is to start in Q3, and the consumer is getting increasingly into hot water. With household debt over $17T, credit card debt not really retreating (revolving credit up 17% in Mar annualized), the stress is showing in XRT and recent earnings calls from WMT, TGT... leaving AMZN not immune either, methinks.

Don't forget that the LEIs I mention so often, have been declining for 13 months in a row, and show no sign of turning. Fed isn't happy about the GDP, real estate or job market status as relates its larger inflation ight. Stock market sellers are to retake initiative once this rally runs its course.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) - combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.

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Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article contains 4 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook


4,154 is the first stop, and the fact we're reaching it with barely a move higher in USD but accompanied by significant real asset declines, means to me it would be worthwhile to not rush and instead assess the degree of buyers' weakness. 4,136 followed by 4,115 might not be that far, considering this is happening without any scary debt ceiling headlines.

Gold, Silver and Miners


Precious metals have still ways to go, and my gold $1,930 and other silver and copper targets loom. USD at 103.30 would prove cheap, and its upswing is ready to continue, with the debt ceiling resolution probably not signifying selloff, but relief over "default averted".

Thank you for having read today's free analysis, which is a small part of my site's daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.

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Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
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www.monicakingsley.co
mk@monicakingsley.co

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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