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CPI Game Plan

 

May 9, 2023 (Investorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 day of indecision lends more support to the bearish case, and the sellers are likely to appear with more force and somewhat better success today. The weak seasonality together with hawkish Fed bets (3m T-Bill made a new high at 5.31% now), will keep exerting pressure on the banks and their deposits situation).

Today's outlook is bearish, pointing to a break below 4,136 on a closing basis - and the countdown to recession keeping a lid on risk-on metrics (cyclicals, smallcaps) is on. Even crypto joined, which is a good sign no matter daily improvement in Nasdaq market breadth.

Depending on the strength of pre CPI positioning - my detailed prognosis for all of this week's macroeconomic data can be found in yesterday's extensive article - the bears can think about 4,128 (quite minor support) and crucially 4,115. Choppy day with a bearish bias is what's most likely ahead as tomorrow's hotter than expected inflation data would spur stock market selloff.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) - combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article contains 6 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook


Poor moves in KRE, XLF, XLB and XLI while tech including semiconductors continues underpinning the markets, don't bode well for good S&P 500 returns on the long side. Following the break of 4,039, the selloff would accelerate, but we're still long way from that figure. The preconditions are however in place, and crypto with banking are but the only indications.

4,078 break is the ultimate bearish objective to give them the clear upper hand (midweek?), and start ushering passive indexing readjustments aka broader synchronized selling.

Thank you for having read today's free analysis, which is a small part of my site's daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.

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Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
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www.monicakingsley.co
mk@monicakingsley.co

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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