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Hawkish Surprise


May 3, 2023 ( Newswire) S&P 500 suffered on more bad banking news, but the bears couldn't keep the selling going - I correctly didn't trust bonds to send ES through 4,115. Overall, the yield curve reflected renewed Fed easing calls yesterday - and stocks attempted and attempt to front run the Fed pause notion as much as precious metals love banking woes and declining yields combined with more recessionary signs.

Take only the USD gyrations mirroring those in the bond market. All are ultimately a bet on Fed policy stance, but I continue to think we would get 25bp hike, and no promise (really no promise) of a pause or anything that would make any Fed rate cutting a distinct more than possible certainty in the near future (by autumn, in autumn).

Of course, it doesn't help the greenback that ECB is ready to hike 50bp still, but a good debt ceiling showdown till risk-off rears its head very properly again, is in the cards still. See for yourselves the TGA drawdowns of late...

I'll be covering the run up to the Fed decision and analyze it live for you on Twitter and Telegram as always, stay tuned for the latest!

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) - combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

Latest employment data allow the Fed to maintain hawkish stance, and the only question is how much the bulls would try to convince everyone that the sky is clear on any 4,188 resistance break - and whether more banking news (it's impossible to viably compete with money market funds through paying out depositors better rates) hits before they muster the strength and overcome ever poorer market breadth metrics.

4,115 break which I ruled out yesterday, is out of the question unless Powell is very clear today during the conference.

Credit Markets

No risk-on here in the least- I doubt HYG would be able to make a solid comeback today. The risks are heavily skewed to the downside (risk-off) even if 25bp hike is virtually baked into the cake - look at oil and copper illustrating the subpar growth case...

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Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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