Earnings season guidance will give recession clues

April 13, 2023 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Investor focus is set to shift from inflation to earnings season, which starts on Friday, as it will give us more insight about a forthcoming recession, says the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The assessment from deVere Group's Nigel Green comes ahead of earnings reports on Friday from major Wall Street banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Among other companies reporting next week are Tesla, IBM, and Johnson & Johnson.

He says: "For weeks it's all been about the trajectory of inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes for investors.  But the focus is now shifting to earnings season.

"The big banks will be keenly watched as not only do they often set the mood music for the rest of the season, but also because they are more intricately linked to the rest of the economy than most other sectors.

"In addition, they'll be more in focus than ever following the crisis triggered by Silicon Valley Bank last month."

Should banks report lower earnings or revenue than expected, it could be a sign that they are experiencing issues with lending and other financial activities.

"If banks are struggling, it could make it more difficult for businesses and consumers to access credit, which could in turn further slow down economic growth and lead to a recession," notes the deVere Group CEO.

"Plus, a fall in bank earnings could indicate a lack of confidence in the wider economy, which would cause investors to pull back on their investments and further exacerbate the likelihood of a forthcoming recession."

With established economic indicators - such as the inverted yield curve - currently flashing up signs of a possible recession, investors will not only be analyzing the reports about last quarter's earnings, they will be looking at the accompanying guidance for the months ahead.

"Guidance will be in the forefront of investors' minds this earnings season. Last time around, there was a lot of negative guidance from corporates and I think we'll have much of the same this time too," says Nigel Green.

"Corporate guidance in earnings season is critical for the wider economy because it provides insight into the future expectations of companies, which will impact investor sentiment and overall economic activity."

Earlier this week the CEO said that bond markets and stock markets are not singing the same tune currently. "Both cannot be right.  This gaping disconnect between bonds and stocks suggests that investors should brace themselves for significant volatility this quarter" in global financial markets.

"Should the US, the world's largest economy, fall into a recession, it would clearly have a global impact. Investors will be doing a deep-dive into corporate guidance statements as earnings season kicks off, as recession fears have been increasing in recent weeks," he concludes.

e: george@priorconsultancy.co.uk
t: +44 207 1220 925
Twitter: @PriorConsults

deVere Group is one of the world's largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

More Info:

Disclaimer/Disclosure: Investorideas.com is a digital publisher of third party sourced news, articles and equity research as well as creates original content, including video, interviews and articles. Original content created by investorideas is protected by copyright laws other than syndication rights. Our site does not make recommendations for purchases or sale of stocks, services or products. Nothing on our sites should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell products or securities. All investing involves risk and possible losses. This site is currently compensated for news publication and distribution, social media and marketing, content creation and more. Disclosure is posted for each compensated news release, content published /created if required but otherwise the news was not compensated for and was published for the sole interest of our readers and followers. Contact management and IR of each company directly regarding specific questions.

More disclaimer info: https://www.investorideas.com/About/Disclaimer.asp Learn more about publishing your news release and our other news services on the Investorideas.com newswire https://www.investorideas.com/News-Upload/

Global investors must adhere to regulations of each country. Please read Investorideas.com privacy policy: https://www.investorideas.com/About/Private_Policy.asp