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Bitcoin defends the $26,000 level. The crypto market pressured by risk aversion

Today Cryptocurrency analysis on behalf of Hani Abuagla Senior Market Analyst at XTB MENA


September 25, 2023 ( Newswire) Cryptocurrency market sentiment remains weak, amid declines in global stock markets, a strong dollar and rising yields putting pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $26,000 and is losing less than 2%, Ripple, Alogrand and Kyber are also trading under pressure, losing almost 8% today. Moonbeam, on the other hand, is doing very well, gaining almost 39% after the news of a possible listing on the Upbit exchange: the cryptocurrency's trading volume increased almost 20 times.

  • Several Glassnode indicators point to a resurgence of bearish sentiment (the price has fallen below the average purchase price of short-term investors who bought bitcoin over the last 155 days).
  • In their latest analysis, Glassnode analysts highlighted that the inflow of new investors into the cryptocurrency market this year was positive but very small.
  • On-chain data shows that the number of bitcoins deposited on exchanges has increased in recent weeks, which may suggest a prolonged period of bitcoin weakness.

Bitcoin and Moonbeam (D1) Charts

Looking at the BITCOIN chart, we see that the price is trading below SMA100 and SMA200 and sellers may want to test the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at $25,600, which has proven to be important support so far. Breaking this limit could indicate a test of $21,700 where the 61.8% Fibonacci runs. On the other hand, however, the MACD indicates a bullish divergence similar to that of Fall 2022 (yellow rectangle): key resistance remains around $28,000 (23.6% Fib of the November 2022 ascending wave).

Source: xStation5

MOONBEAM cryptocurrency price soared on hopes of the cryptocurrency being listed on major exchanges and the resulting surge in speculator interest, but the rallies quickly died out near the SMA200 (red line) and are now retreating into the area of around 0.22% set by the SMA100 and previous price reactions. If the bulls fail to break above the SMA200 again, the base case is a new downtrend. The RSI indicator points to levels close to overbought at 76 points.

Source: xStation5

Informacion de la Cadena de Bloques

Next, we see that the percentage of short-term addresses in profit has again recorded a massive drop to levels not seen in 11 months (over 97.5% of addresses are posting losses). This may mean that the pressure to sell BTC at a loss in the STH pool (short-term holders) may be growing, as evidenced by the previous pattern of on-chain behavior (when the price fell below the average STH purchase price of BTC).

Source: Glassnode

If we look historically, with the exception of a few cases where a situation similar to the current one, a price drop below the STH average has sometimes been a "contrary" signal; indicating an oversold market - a potential accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.

Source: Glassnode

The new investor confidence index (calculated by Glassnode by subtracting from the average BTC purchase price of long-term addresses (LTH), the average purchase price of investors selling Bitcoin, and dividing by the current market price) fell again to negative levels for the first time since January 2023.

Source: Glassnode

More Info: Newswire

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