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Winds of Change


November 9, 2022 ( Newswire) Making a fine run, S&P 500 retreated from a vulnerable level of 3,865, but the bulls didn't give up totally since. Still, this tough 3,848 - 3,855 resistance held, the breakout was rejected, and another attempt has to wait for the CPI aftermath. One good argument for a lackluster session today is the likely (dead cat) bounce in the dollar as the correction hasn't played out yet after yet another day deep in the red, which would coincide with a slight move higher in yields exerting pressure namely on tech. In short, stock bulls would be on the defensive today, and unlikely to make solid and lasting progress.

Just as I have written yesterday, 3,815 has to hold as support while already 3,845 would be biting today should the buyers make it that far in the first place, and:

(...) 3,848 - 3,855 represents solid resistance that can be reasonably overcome only on a sharp risk-on turn in bonds ... - still, the medium-term trend is up, and it's only a matter of time (more likely facilitated by Thursday's CPI confirming the notion of inflation peak being in, than midterms) before this level gets broken to the upside.

Note that stocks are unable to get much support from retreating oil prices (WTIC moved from $93 to $88), and natgas is below $6. Even the highly encouraging precious metals run on increasing volume is undergoing a (healthy, must be stated, healthy) correction today, but the winds of change are blowing, with especially silver being a winning proposition. Copper continues confirming the breakout attempt from the monthslong consolidation with decreasing sensitivity to the rate hikes. And here we are, late in the tightening cycle, with CPI tomorrow likely to feed into Dec 50bp angle, helping crude oil to return above $90 and USD remaining on the defensive though not as badly as cryptos where the dust isn't settled yet.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you're signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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