July 20, 2022 (Investorideas.com Newswire) S&P 500 reached my initial target of 3,940, and turned out indeed slated for premarket consolidation today. No signs of daily weakness either in tech or value - market breadth is improving. The bottom isn't yet in as the washout is still ahead - yes, we're still in a larger bear market, and the fundamental dynamics of Fed's options to fight inflation while the U.S. is still set to avoid recession in the traditional sense of the word, is setting tone. The weakness in consumer sentiment hasn't yet translated into declining retail sales, and the July reprieve at the pump (oil prices serve as a shadow Fed funds rate), would go a long way in helping the Fed regain some of the inflation fighter luster lost. More thoughts beyond this immediate stock market are reserved for premium subscribers.
Let's move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) - today's full scale article features good 6 ones..
Gold, Silver and Miners
Precious metals haven't taken the dollar's cue, and that spells more short-term trouble. Not even volume is coming back to gold really. Miners to gold ratio is at least going sideways already - we have quite a few more weeks of tested patience and pain in the metals before the new upleg starts developing.
Crude oil is rising very modestly, and needs more days backing and filling before conquering $105 again. The volume continues favoring the bulls - this week would be good.
Copper is turning around only in the short-term. The red metal would participate in the risk-on upswing unfolding, but underperform - it's still vulnerable to a takedown.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Cryptos aren't looking bad at all today - probably the key sign is that Bitcoin or Ethereum aren't declining. This is another chart (similarly to stocks and bonds) looking for fresh buyers so that the upswing can continue a little longer.
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