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EIA releases July's U.S. short-term energy forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Adminitration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday, July 10, 2018.

 

July 10, 2018 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Dr. Linda Capuano, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, issued the following comments on EIA's July 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was released on Tuesday:

Oil Markets:

"EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices to remain above $70 per barrel this year. Production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Russia will make up the majority of total global supply growth in 2019."

"Non-OECD countries, led by China and India, are contributing significantly to increases in the global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels. The United States is also experiencing strong liquid fuels consumption growth, as the economy continues to expand."

"Net crude oil and petroleum product imports into the United States have continued historic declines in 2018, and EIA's outlook is that those declines will continue in 2019. Net imports are forecast to decrease from 3.7 million barrels per day in 2017 to 2.4 million barrels per day in 2018, a year-over-year drop of 35%."

"The July STEO keeps the forecast for U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports for 2019 unchanged from June's outlook. At an expected 1.6 million barrels per day next year, the United States will reach net import levels not seen since 1958."

"In 2019, EIA forecasts that the United States will average nearly 12 million barrels of crude oil production per day. If the forecast holds, that would make the U.S. the world's leading producer of crude."

"EIA forecasts that U.S. motor gasoline consumption will decline slightly in 2018 and then grow in 2019, increasing by 0.5% from 2018 levels. If EIA's projected growth in 2019 is realized, it would be the highest level of annual average gasoline consumption on record, slightly surpassing the previous record set in 2017."

"EIA expects that monthly average gasoline prices peaked in May and will decline gradually in the coming months to an average of $2.83 per gallon in September."

Natural Gas:

"The July outlook continues to forecast record production for U.S. dry natural gas in 2018 and 2019. Assuming the forecast holds, we will see production top 81 billion cubic feet per day in 2018, and another increase that will push production up to roughly 84 billion cubic feet in 2019."

"Growth in production enables EIA's forecast of LNG and pipeline exports from the United States to expand."

"Net natural gas pipeline imports from Canada continue to decrease in EIA's July outlook. New infrastructure and increased exports from the Appalachia basin to the U.S. Midwest and Canada are behind much of the decrease."

Coal:

"U.S. coal consumption in the electric power sector in the first half of 2018 was down 4% from the same time last year, according to the July outlook. The forecast expects that decrease to continue, with coal consumption in the electric power sector decreasing by another 4% for the first half of 2019."

"The decrease in EIA's forecast for the U.S. power sector's coal consumption reflects increased electricity generation from natural gas and renewable energy sources and the closure of coal-fired power plants."

"EIA forecasts that U.S. coal exports to Asia will remain robust amidst some production declines. Increasing electricity demand, which coincides with strong economic growth, particularly in India, are spurring exports. From January to April 2018, U.S. coal exports to India surpassed the export numbers for all of 2017."

Renewables:

"In 2017, electricity generation from renewables was just above 17% of total electricity generation. The July outlook expects increases in generation among renewables to come from sources other than hydropower over the next couple of years."

The full STEO can be downloaded at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/

EIA's STEO forecast on summer gasoline prices and demand/supply is at: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/sf01.pdf

EIA's STEO forecast on summer household electricity expenses is at: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/sf02.pdf

The full STEO can be downloaded at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/

STEO contact:

Tim Hess, 202-586-4212 (timothy.hess@eia.gov)

Media contact:

Jonathan Cogan, 202-586-8719 (jonathan.cogan@eia.gov)


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