The President of Brazil's Central Bank, Ilan Goldfajn, expects a gradual economic recovery from the recession
August 18, 2017 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Investorideas.com reports on the recently held conference call with Brazil's Central Bank governor Ilan Goldfajn, on August 15th.
Brazil is two years into its worst recession on record, spurred on by falling commodity prices and political corruption. The Government of Brazil is attempting to combat the recession through spending cuts, social security and tax reform.
Goldfajn said it is still unclear how successful recovery will be achieved, but there are some indicators that the recession is coming to an end, such as modest growth in employment.
"We will know better about the exact pace over the next months, but there are already recent signs," he said. "After the first quarter, what we saw in the second quarter was a gradual recovery. We saw improving employment numbers. Employment population started growing by 0.6 percent in the second quarter."
Goldfajn also said that the consistency in job creation was a good sign.
"We saw net creation of jobs," he said. "In July, for example, we saw the creation of 36,000 jobs, which will be the fourth consecutive month of positive numbers."
Goldfajn was optimistic about international trade and investment with Brazil while still conceding some uncertainties.
"The global environment has been benign so far," he said. "There has been quite an appetite for Brazilian assets. Capital flows are okay, asset prices are behaving normally, the remaining risks are there but so far so good."
Another indication of recovery, according to Goldfajn, is the contraction of inflation rates in the last year.
"In terms of inflation we have seen, in the last quarter of last year, a decline in inflation which is continuing up until now," he said. "We've gone from almost 11 percent at the beginning of last year, to less than three percent."
With many of the Government's fiscal targets proving elusive, and slower than anticipated return to growth, Goldfajn insists that what's really important are the long term effects of policy.
"We have been saying that in the long term it is important with the initial interest rates that the fiscal accounts are in order," he said. "We have said that we don't look at the very short run, the month to month changes, but we of course look at the end results."
By Samuel Mowers for Investorideas.com
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