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First Insight | Ecopetrol Earnings Results 1Q14

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April 30, 2014 ( newswire) 1Q14's revenues were COP 18,26 trillion, +9.1% YoY, despite a 3.2% YoY decrease in production. This figure was supported by COP's devaluation (12.1% YoY) and higher sale volumes (934 kbped +5.5%. . It is worthy to highlight, that average Brent oil prices during the 1Q14 declined 4.3% YoY. Revenues were 3.1% below our estimates. Production during the 1Q14 was 766 kbped, -3.2% YoY and 3.7% below our estimates. According to Ecopetrol, there were 33 terrorist attacks made to the Colombian oil infrastructure during the 1Q14, which affected production levels. That said, the OBC operation has been affected since Feb-20 and Caño Limon since Mar-25

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1Q14's EBITDA was COP 7,79 trillion, + 5.6%, which represents a margin of 42.7%, 139 bp below 1Q13's. EBITDA was 4.7% below our estimates. In the bottom line, net income was COP 3.2 trillion, -3.6% YoY and 16.7% below our estimates.

Over all, we consider the 1Q14's results as negative, production issues in Colombia continued to jeopardize Ecopetrol's MEGA, a situation that we have been mentioning before. We also maintain cautious about future oil prices. We think that current share price have discounted most of 1Q14 results. However, we wouldn't be surprise to see COP 3,400/share leves in the short term.

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