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Reporte Semanal de Mercados Internacionales y MILA

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January 20, 2014 ( newswire) A lo largo de 2013, la Reserva Federal (Fed) insistió en que el Quantitative Easing (QE) depende de los datos de la economía. Por lo tanto, cabe preguntarse si, tras el dato de empleo de dic-13 (creación neta de 74 mil), la Fed continuará con el tapering.

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El último Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), sin embargo, podría ofrecer a la Fed una razón para proseguir con los recortes. Las plazas vacantes (4 MM) y la tasa de renuncias (1.8%) en nov-13 mantuvieron el mismo ritmo que en meses pasados, lo cual sugiere que el mercado laboral continuó mejorando. En vista de esta evidencia mixta, esperamos un recorte de USD 5 mil MM tras la reunión de 29-ene, el cual sería menor al realizado en dic-13. De esta forma, el QE alcanzaría USD 70 mil MM en compras al mes.

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