MDA Weather Services: Colder than Normal Close to October - A Sign of Things to Come this Winter?
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Gaithersburg, MD - October 25, 2013 (www.investorideas.com newswire) The latter half of October continues to run much colder than its first half and features some of the coldest air of the season thus far across key energy consuming areas of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. MDA Weather's forecast for the remainder of the month is nearly 20% colder than the 30 year normal (30yr) in terms of national Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (GWHDDs) and lends interest to those monitoring potential cold risks for the upcoming heating season.
The official MDA Weather winter forecast for December to February runs slightly colder than both the 30yr and 10yr normals based on GWHDDs, and considerably colder than the much warmer than normal winters of 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. The coldest temperatures are expected to be found more widespread during the latter half of the heating season as compared to the first half. MDA's forecast currently shows December as the warmest month, relative to normal, and February as the coldest. The colder risks could potentially carry into March as well.
MDA's outlook accounts for several factors, including the currently neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state, the long term negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), atmospheric blocking, and surface indicators such as snow/ice cover.
"While it is a bit too soon to confidently predict the finer details, the expected increase in volatility alone this winter versus the past two supports the colder outlook by comparison," says Bob Haas, Energy Weather Manager at MDA Weather Services. "This will likely result in a formidable increase in energy demand year on year as well."
In terms of precipitation, the Southwest, Interior West, Southern Plains and Texas are expected to average drier than normal while the Southeast should average wetter than normal. The Northeast and Ohio Valley should be near normal.
In summary, the outlook based on GWHDDs for the winter of 2013-2014 is expected to be:
Cooler than the 10-yr and 30-year
Cooler than the prior two winter seasons (2011-12 & 2012-13)
Colder late season versus early, relative to normal
About MDA Weather Services:
MDA Weather Services, sole provider of EarthSat Weather products, is the global leader for weather risk and commodity weather support. MDA Weather Services maintains a full short, medium, and long range forecast service. The company provides special reports on key market-moving concerns, maintains high levels of communication, and 24/7/365 consultation with its worldwide client base. MDA's EarthSat Weather products support client decision making processes throughout the majority of the weather risk, energy, and agricultural markets. MDA Weather Services is a business area within MDA Information Systems LLC, the fundamental provider of essential global information solutions and risk management products. For more information, visit http://www.mdaus.com or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
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