September 19, 2013 (www.investorideas.com newswire) The Dow Jones stocks index closed at another all time high of 15,676, catching many if not most so called market analysts off guard as for the duration of the stock markets latest correction could be found to be singing the new secular or cyclical bear market has begun mantra, despite the fact that many of whom have been singing the same tune for the duration of the 5 year plus of the stocks bull market.
The latest excuse for being wrong once more is that Ben Bernanke apparently surprised all with his announcement for the continuation of money printing (QE) at the rate of $85 billion per month, though readers of my articles will know and understand that MONEY PRINTING CANNOT END whilst large budget deficits persist AND below trend growth continues. A reason can always be found to explain WHY the academics and perma-bear crowd got it wrong again, however what many clearly fail to comprehend is what the consequences of rampant money printing is, be it called QE, debt or go by a myriad of other names, the consequences IS ALWAYS EXPONENTIAL INFLATION.
That is the mega-trend that the worlds economies remain immersed in. To reiterate what I have stated literally dozens of times over the duration of the stocks stealth bull market that began in March 2009 (Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ), that there is no cyclical or secular ONLY BULL or BEAR, only LONG or SHORT, either that or as is more probably the case those that are most vocal commentators NEVER actually TRADE or INVEST with their OWN money! That is self evident in the fact that had they traded with their own money, then by now they would have gone bust several times over!
To become a successful investor or trader, apart form committing a lot of time in testing of hypotheses rather than taking conventional wisdom for granted such as many of the price patterns and indicators that do not match reality such as the oft mentioned head and shoulders pattern, hindenberg omen, elliott wave theory, 90% of gann analysis or the whole area of cyclical analysis which in my 30 years of market experience NONE of which stand up to real time testing.
If you want to learn to trade then you have to realise the fundamental fact that Technical Analysis is a RED HERRING ! It is purely a sales industry that I have seen explode over the past 30 years.
My ebook of Feb 2013 (Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook for 2013 and Beyond) reiterated at length what I consider to be the real secrets for successful trading which you can download for FREE! For the primary mechanism for being to be on the right side of the market is to be conditioned by the market through the mechanism of profit vs losses. If you don't trade or invest then you will never have a clue, which is why journalists, economists and the TA sales industry cannot even get things right by looking in the rear view mirror to explain what has already happened let alone what probabilities imply is likely to happen going forward! Know this that the media can always find a reason in hindsight but the same reason can and usually IS used to explain either rally's or drops, which illustrates just how clueless the mainstream financial press tends to be!
Read my FREE ebook now to find the truth about the holy grail of Technical Analysis.
In terms of the stock market, whilst my focus for the past year has been on the emerging housing bull markets, however, I am still targeting to have 20% of my wealth invested in stocks by the end of this year (current 20%).
My simple investing strategy for the duration of the bull market from the March 2009 bear market bottom has remained the same which is - The greater the deviation from the bull market high then the greater the buying opportunity presented.
Exponential Inflation Mega-trends
The following graphs of official CPI inflation rates (that tend to under report real inflation by between 1-1.5% per annum) illustrate the exponential inflation mega-trend's in motion that asset prices tend to be leveraged to and oscillate around and hence one of the primary mechanisms of how the elite accumulate wealth, whilst the effect on the wage slaves is to continuously lose purchasing power of net earnings (after taxes) thus forcing workers to take on debt and thus become reliant on political bribes (benefits and entitlements culture) and perpetual debt slaves who will spend virtually the whole of their adult lives servicing their debts, for instance over 90% of today's graduates will leave university with about £60,000 of debt that they will then be focused on servicing for the next 25 years of their lives.
The following graphic illustrates the money printing exponential inflation cycle for the UK which also holds true for many other nations.
Housing Bull Market Opportunities
My focus for over a year has been increasingly on the emerging US and UK housing bull markets, as I have increasingly flagged the much hated housing asset classes to focus upon for the UK and US as presenting a once in a decade opportunity as the embryonic bull markets of 2012 HAVE morphed into the new bull markets of 2013, where I expect UK house prices to be rising at a rate of 10% per annum for October 2013 data and by 12% per annum by Jan 2014 (Halifax NSA) (19 Aug 2013 - UK House Prices Bull Market Soaring Momentum, 10% Inflation by October? )and longer term I expect the bull market to run for virtually the whole of the remainder of this decade, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get my ongoing in-depth analysis in your email in box.
As a guide of what one could consider doing to protect themselves from the ongoing money printing fraud, the following updated table illustrates how my portfolio is trending in terms of asset classes to protect both against inflation stealth theft and possible outright theft of bank deposits cyprus style.
Cash & Bonds
Stocks & Commodities
The bottom line is this - QE is a PANIC Measure, which means the worlds central banks remain in PANIC MODE! As I pointed out near 4 years ago in the Inflation Mega-trend ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD), they ONLY have one answer which is to PRINT MONEY! There is NO other answer! the consequences of which is INFLATION. SO, leverage yourselves to Inflation by investing investing in assets that CANNOT be printed - SIMPLE!
All politicians and central bankers are infected by the highly contagious money printing virus! Forget Tapering, instead expect the next Fed Chairperson to EXPAND QE to MORE than $85 billion per month! - Remember you heard it here first!
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.
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