DUBLIN - October 19, 2012 (Investorideas.com Energy Stocks Newswire) Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "United States Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012" report to their offering.
"United States Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012"
Unconventional shale gas and tight oil production continue to make waves in the US market, drastically altering domestic energy supply and demand and price dynamics. This trend is set to continue, though we expect the lion's share of production growth to be focused on liquids over the next five years given that low natural gas prices are rendering a swathe of more marginal plays uneconomical. While the gradual upturn in the business cycle is set to lift demand, the author expects most growth to focus on gas as utilities take advantage of low prices to boost gas-fired generation. Oil demand is set to continue falling as high prices and growing energy efficiency hit consumption.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the US oil and gas sector are:
According to our forecasts, the boom in US unconventional liquids production is set to combine with higher output from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) to push total liquids supply (crude oil, NGLs, other liquids and refinery gains) to 10.95mn b/d in 2012. By 2016, the author anticipates that total liquids output will have hit 11.99mn b/d.
Demand growth will remain below trend over the course of the forecast period (to 2021) as the US energy market reduces its energy intensity. The author expects total oil demand of 18.73mn b/d in 2012 and 18.91mn b/d by 2016.
Changing dynamics in the US gas market have drastically reduced the US's import burden. The author expects the total oil and gas net import bill to hit US$331.25bn in 2012, falling to just US$257.19bn by 2016 and US$241.28bn in 2021.
The most dramatic shift is taking place in the natural gas market where surging production is reducing the import burden dramatically. The author expects net imports of 51.31bcm in 2012, falling to just 4.27bcm by 2021. Perhaps in light of this collapse, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted a landmark export permit to Chenier Energy for its Sabine Pass facility on April 17 2012.
In the downstream segment, US refiners on the east coast have been suffering due to high feedstock prices and falling gasoline demand. The Marcus Hook facility remains shut, reducing total refinery capacity by 178,000b/d. However, the future is brighter for the 335,000b/d Philadelphia refinery after the facility was acquired by the Carlyle Group. The 185,000b/d Trainer facility was also rescued by a white knight when it was acquired by Delta Airlines in Q212. The author therefore anticipates total US refinery capacity will fall by just 178,000b/d to 17.60mn b/d in 2012, before recovering to 17.79mn b/d by 2016.
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