DUBLIN - August 31, 2012 (Investorideas.com Energy stocks newswire) Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012" report to their offering.
"United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012"
The United States Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States 's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Unconventional shale gas and tight oil production continue to make waves in the US market, drastically altering domestic energy supply, demand and price dynamics. This trend is set to continue, though BMI expect the lion's share of production growth to be focused on liquids over the next five years given that low natural gas prices are rendering a swathe of more marginal plays uneconomic. While the gradual upturn in the business cycle is set to lift both natural gas and liquids demand, BMI expect most growth to focus on gas as utilities take advantage of low prices to boost gas-fired generation. Oil demand is set to continue falling as high prices and growing energy efficiency hit consumption.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the US oil and gas sector are:
According to our forecasts, the boom in US unconventional liquids production is set to combine with higher output from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) to push total liquids supply (crude oil, NGLs, other liquids and refinery gains) to 10.95mn b/d in 2012. By 2016, we anticipate that total liquids output will have hit 11.99mn b/d.
Oil demand growth is set to remain negative despite the slow recovery in the macro-economy (BMI's latest forecasts point to average real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2012, rising to 2.4% in 2013). We estimate a fall in consumption of 0.6% and 0.1% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Demand growth will remain below trend over the course of the forecast period (to 2021) as the US energy market reduces its energy intensity. We expect total oil demand of 18.73mn b/d in 2012 and 18.91mn b/d in 2016.
The shale gas revolution in the US saw total output soar 6.3% in 2011 to approximately 651bn cubic metres (bcm). However, this unconventional boon has created a supply glut, forcing prices down to 10-year lows. Gas producers have therefore started shutting in non-associated wells and are endeavouring to channel capital expenditure (capex) towards liquids-rich plays where possible. We therefore estimate a sharp fall in gas production growth in 2012. Our forecast is somewhat below consensus, with total gas output anticipated to rise just 4.0% to 677.34bcm. With prices set to remain well below their five-year average over the medium term, we do not anticipate dramatic growth in gas output. In 2016 we anticipate total production of 692.36bcm.
Sluggish economic growth is set to limit gas demand growth in all but the power sector, where low gas prices are pushing utilities to switch away from coal generation. We expect a rise in gas-fired generation of nearly 11% between 2012 and 2016. Given this outlook, we anticipate a rise in gas consumption from 723.48bcm in 2012, to 739.85bcm by 2016.
Changing dynamics in the US gas market have drastically reduced the US ' import burden. We expect the total oil and gas net import bill to hit US$342.05bn in 2012, falling to just US$273.56bn by 2016 and US$261.66bn in 2021.
The most dramatic shift is taking place in the natural gas market where surging production is reducing the import burden dramatically. We expect net imports of 46.13bcm in 2012, falling to just 16.46bcm by 2021. Perhaps in light of this collapse, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted a landmark export permit to Chenier Energy for its Sabine Pass facility on April 17 2012. The plant is set to begin operations by 2016/2017 with exports totalling 16mn tonnes per annum, or approximately 12bcm. This has now been factored into our forecasts and we expect net LNG imports to fall from 6.68bcm in 2012, to just 3.38bcm in 2015. From 2016, the US should become a netexporter of LNG with the approval of further export facilities a major upside risk to our forecasts.
Research and Markets Laura Wood, Senior Manager. press@researchandmarkets.com U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907 Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
Sector: Gas, Oil
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