Solar Stocks weak while Solar Portfolio outperforms Market Indexes by 300%
Solar Stocks and Market Commentary with J Peter Lynch
Point Roberts, South Salem, New York - July 13, 2011 www.Investorideas.com, a leader in cleantech stock research, releases a new solar stocks performance commentary.
Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch -
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Solar Stocks weak while Solar Portfolio outperforms Market Indexes by 300%
J Peter Lynch
At this time the general market continues to stay in a higher risk zone. This does not mean that you cannot make money but that most of the money has usually been made at this stage. However, it is not uncommon for the market to stay in a higher risk zone for many months.
As a result, an investor has to be more cautious and take some more defensive actions. For example, sell stocks in your portfolio that are showing weakening relative strength to the market, tighten up your stop loss sell points and if you are more sophisticated, buy protective puts to hedge yourself.
However, the market has been climbing a "wall of worry" for a long time now, volatility has dramatically increased and the market has moved into its traditionally unfavorable season – May thru September approximately – additional reasons for caution.
Remember the two key rules from the legendary investor Warren Buffet on how to make money in the stock market:
- Never lose money*
- Never forget rule #1
*What Buffet really means by "never lose money" is really to cut your losses short (minimize your losses) and let your winners run as long as they are technically strong (maximize your return).
Updated Comments on our Solar Portfolio
Most of the stock s in the solar sector have fallen further behind the general market - see year to date table below - and have continued to weaken.
Below are the latest comments on our solar portfolio and its lone remaining stock - SOLR.
Since we sold our prior positions in the solar portfolio (HSOL,LDK,SOL,JKS,JASO,TSL), they have dropped in value another 29% - this is a perfect example of Buffet's two rules - by selling when the stocks got weaker we took our gains and missed further losses.
To date the portfolio is up approximately triple the major industry averages 17% vs 5.61%.
SOLR (1,000 shares) - Consistently the strongest stock in our portfolio. It is the only stock in the portfolio that we have not sold any of our initial position of 1,000 shares is really the only solar stock that is significantly above both its 50 day and 200 day moving averages**
**Remember that the 50 day MA is a short term indicator of technical strength and the 200 day MA is a long term indicator of strength. The optimal position for a stock to be in is ABOVE both these moving averages.
|Symbol||Company Name||Current Value||%Change YTD|
|ASTI||Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc.||1||-70.24|
|CSIQ||Canadian Solar Inc.||9.69||-21.79|
|CSUN||China Sunergy Company Ltd.||1.76||-57.89|
|DSTI||DayStar Technologies Inc.||0.47||-70.23|
|EMKR||EMCORE Corporation ||2.95||171.89|
|ENER||Energy Conversion Devices Inc||1.11||-75.87|
|ESLR||Evergreen Solar, Inc.||0.41||-88.28|
|FSLR||First Solar, Inc.||123.97||-4.74|
|HSOL||Solarfun Power Holdings Co.||5.34||-34.64|
|JASO||JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd ||4.56||-34.1|
|JKS||JinkoSolar Holding Company Ltd||22.8||13.32|
|LDK ||LDK Solar Company Ltd.||6.33||-37.45|
|RSOL||Real Goods Solar, Inc.||2.85||11.7209|
|SOLR||GT Solar International Inc||14.39||57.79|
|STP||Suntech Power Holdings||7.6||-5.1186|
|TSL||Trina Solar Limited (China)||18.09||-22.76|
|WEST||Akeena Solar, Inc.||1.45||-23.1992|
|WFR||MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc.||7.51||-33.3|
|YGE||Yingli Green Energy Holding Co.||7.52||-23.89|
|Average solar Stock Return Year to Date||-18.24%|
|Average Market Index Return Year to Date||5.61%|
Keep in mind that there are two basic types of equity (stock) analysis. Below is a brief description of each and its primary purpose:
Fundamental Analysis - this is the analysis of the fundamental financial condition of the company to identify which stocks are stocks you may want to buy when the timing is right. This form of analysis will give you NO indication of the best time to buy the stock.
Technical Analysis - this form of analysis will tell you "when" to buy a stock. It will do this by showing you (in chart format) the basic interaction of supply and demand and when the two change and shift which will indicate a time to buy or a time to sell.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 34 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst an investment banker and private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17 years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, the leading publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and advisor to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at: SOLARJPL@aol.com. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy - www.sunseries.net
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