Stock Stocks and Portfolio Update 5-17-2011
Solar Stocks and Market Commentary with J Peter Lynch
Point Roberts, South Salem, New York - May 17, 2011 - www.Investorideas.com, a leader in cleantech stock research, issues a solar stocks portfolio update from contributor, J. Peter Lynch for May 17th.
Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch -
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See Peter's technical solar stocks review: http://www.investorideas.com/PL/Solar-Stocks-Review.asp
Stock Stocks and Portfolio Update 5-17-2011
J Peter Lynch
As a result of the much more volatile market and continued pressure on solar stocks we have sold two of the remaining three positions in our solar stock portfolio.
Trina Solar TSL - remaining 500 shares yesterday at $24.95
Jinko Solar (JKS) - remaining 500 shares this morning at $25.95
These sales leave the remaining portfolio with only the original 1,000 shares of GT Solar (SOLR) from the original 7 solar stocks we started with on January 2 2010.
Summary Market Update
The market performance of solar stocks has been terrible to say the least. Since the beginning of 2011 (year to date -YTD) they have dramatically underperformed the markets in general:
Solar Stocks YTD - down 6.94% on average
Markets in General**YTD - up 6.33% on average
Note: the markets in general is the average of the S&P 500, the Dow 30 and NASDAQ
Since the beginning of the 2nd quarter the markets have become much more volatile and have continued to stay in a relatively high risk area, as I mentioned yesterday. But solar stocks have once again underperformed:
Markets in General 2nd Quarter to date - up 0.30%
As I have said many times in the past this current market continues to stay in a higher risk area and the longer it says in this area the more likely we will see at least a short term correction. Meanwhile solar stocks have been underperforming the general markets since the beginning of 2010 and have NOT been a profitable place to be in general. Whereas our original “solar seven” portfolio which constituted our original portfolio starting in the beginning of 2010 had an annual return of over 42% with ZERO transactions. Year to date in 2011 our portfolio is once again outperforming the general markets approximately + 14% compared to + 6.33%.
|Solar Seven 2010|| ||+42.94%|
|All Solar PV Stocks 2010|| ||-14.60%|
|Major Indexes Average|| ||+13.87%|
Solar Seven Selection Criteria
Back in the beginning of 2010 I explained that we were rating all of our solar stocks and that the seven strongest stocks - later named - "The Solar Seven" were the strongest stocks among the industry. My rating system to select the "strongest" stocks is a proprietary combination of various relative strength measures, technical measures and some fundamental components.
What can we learn from this amazing performance in a terrible solar market?
What we can learn is that there are always stocks going up somewhere, even in a terrible market and if you select the "strongest" stocks in a given market segment you will, on average, do quite well. Even if, the strongest stocks are all umbrella's companies and we are in a drought - regardless of what you "think" you know or "think" should be - always remember that "what is, is" and always buy the strongest stocks in a sector or market. You may not always know "why" something happens, but you will, on average, do much better than most investors and most likely better than the market.
Keep in mind that there are two basic types of equity (stock) analysis. Below is a brief description of each and its primary purpose:
Fundamental Analysis - this is the analysis of the fundamental financial condition of the company to identify which stocks are stocks you may want to buy when the timing is right. This form of analysis will give you NO indication of the best time to buy the stock.
Technical Analysis - this form of analysis will tell you "when" to buy a stock. It will do this by showing you (in chart format) the basic interaction of supply and demand and when the two change and shift which will indicate a time to buy or a time to sell.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 34 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst an investment banker and private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17 years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, the leading publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and advisor to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at: SOLARJPL@aol.com. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy - www.sunseries.net
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