Solar Stocks Continue to Sizzle
Solar stocks were up 22.3% for the month, approximately 325% better performance!
Solar Stocks and Market Commentary with J Peter Lynch
Point Roberts, South Salem, New York - October 8 , 2010 - Investorideas.com, a leader in cleantech stock research tools issues new solar stocks commentary from solar contributor, J. Peter Lynch.
Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch -
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A month ago (September 2nd) I said that the market over the past weeks (August) had been a “trendless” and very frustrating market for investors and traders alike and that the volatility was very extreme. I also said that the solar sector was “quietly” starting to come alive.
Well things have sure changed and they have changed for the better. The market turned in early September (historically the worst month of the year for stocks) and proceeded to produce the 5th best September in history and the best in the last 40 years – what a turnaround!
All of this positive activity - right in the face of general media worry over the possibility of a double dip recession, loss of jobs, a weak dollar and China taking over the world (just like Japan was going to do in the 1980’s). What happened is what I have mentioned many times in the past – all bad news and the market simply turns and just climbs up that “wall of worry” to the utter amazement of our media “experts”. Hint: never watch the financial news – it is all short term speculation based upon things no one could really know and more importantly it is usually dead wrong.
What happened to our solar stocks during this incredibly positive time? While the major indexes moved up an average of 6.8% in September alone, our solar stocks were up 22.3% for the month, approximately 325% better performance!
As any of you longer term readers know I have always said that two of the simplest keys to successful investing are:
- Stocks moving above their 50 day average is a good indicator that, at least for the short term, stocks have changed their direction to positive and
- Looking at the relative strength of all of the solar stocks compared to the market and to each other will tell you which solar stocks are the "strongest stocks" and therefore the which stocks will tend to be the leaders in the next big up move.
At this time 18 of our 22 solar stocks are above their 50 day moving average and are in strong positive trends. The only laggards are: Akeena (WEST), Emcore (EMKR), DayStar (DSTI) and Suntech (STP), obviously the market is telling us that these stocks, at least for now, are not ones you would want to count on to be leaders in the near future.
On the other hand the strongest stocks continue to be our “solar seven” from the September 2nd article: JASO, JKS, LDK, SOL, SOLF, SOLR and TSL. These stocks were up and average of 23.8%. These stocks are the current leaders and have been the leaders since the beginning of 2010. As a result, they are more than likely to be the leaders in the near future.
Below is a table of our solar stocks showing their performance verse the major market indexes over three time periods:
- January 2010 to June 2010
- June 2010 to October 7th 2010
- January 2010 to Present (Year To Date)
|Symbol ||Current Price|| % Change 1/10 - 6/10||%Change 6/1 - 10/7/10||%Change YTD|
|ASTI||3.51||-43.02 ||16.2252 ||-33.77|
|CSIQ||15.28||-58.85 ||28.84 ||-46.98|
|DSTI||1.73||-52.62 ||-1.1429|| -53.16|
|EMKR||0.87||-4.6729 ||-14.6961 ||-18.6822|
|ENER||4.73||-51.56 ||-7.6172 ||-55.25|
|ESLR||0.71 ||-41.0596 ||-20.2247 ||-52.9801|
|FSLR||138.64 ||-20.89 ||29.44 ||2.39|
|JASO||8.95||-18.95 ||93.72 ||57.02|
|JKS ||29.75 ||0 ||187.72||0|
|LDK ||9.99||-19.97 ||78.07 ||42.51|
|RSOL||3.23||7.7399 ||-7.1839 ||2.7|
|SOL ||12.23 ||15.1261 ||123.18 ||156.93|
|SOLF||12.3||-9.5675 ||78.26 ||61.21|
|SOLR||8.18||-4.3165 ||53.76 ||47.12|
|SPIR||5.1 ||-35.63 ||47.83 ||-4.8507|
|SPWRA||13.57 ||-48.27|| 10.78 ||-42.69|
|STP ||8.83 ||-40.77 ||-10.36 ||-46.9|
|TSL|| 28.49 ||-38.3 ||71.11 ||5.58|
|Solar Average || ||-28.04%|| 37.15% ||-3.3%|
|S&P 500|| 1159.97|| -3.98 ||8.34 ||4.02|
|Dow Jones|| 10967.65 ||-3.87 ||9.41 ||5.17|
|NASDAQ ||2380.66 ||-2.06 ||7.12 ||4.91|
|Index Averages|| ||-3.30%||8.30%||4.70%|
The data clearly shows that solar stock started to “wake up” about mid year and since then they have dramatically out-performed the general market, whereas prior to June they had dramatically under preformed the market.
For the time being solar stocks look great, but keep in mind that they are far more volatile (higher Beta’s) than the market in general and that an investor needs to keep a sharp eye on their activity and set appropriate stop limits to coincide with their individual level of risk tolerance.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 33 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst an investment banker and private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17 years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, the leading publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and advisor to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at: SOLARJPL@aol.com. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy - www.sunseries.net
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the research published are those of the individual companies and writers and not necessarily those of Investorideas.com® or any of the industry sector portals. At the time of publication, writers may hold positions in the stocks or companies mentioned.
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