Stock Shopping in the Bargain Basement

In the aftermath of the failed bailout, the markets are still tumultuous, and most of us financial pundits are kept busy providing either commentary about the colossal lack of judgement on behalf of Wall Street and the federal government, or giving people advice on how to weather the financial storm. I’ve already discussed some of the storm-weathering steps you can take, but this time around I’m going to go a step further and discuss how you can take advantage of the market-wide decline in stock prices.

Invest now?  Are you Crazy?

If you’re like most people, risk-taking is the last thing you want to think about at this time. There’s no guarantee about any stock price, or for that matter any company. Still, this is the best time to take a risk. The low prices of stocks mean that you can get bargains on companies that have traditionally been strong performers, and once the market recovers you can recognize a profit on these stocks, even if the prices don’t return to pre-marketing collapse highs. On the other hand, if Wall Street and the Dow completely collapse, you’ll have much bigger problems than your stocks not performing. So why not invest?

If you still need some persuading, consider this--Warren Buffet has invested money in Goldman Sachs, even though Berkshire Hathaway share price dropped by over $3,000. One of Buffet’s strategies is to buy shares in otherwise strong businesses that are financially distressed, and it works as well for a Wall Street novice as it does for a power player like Buffet.

A Few Diamonds Caked With Mud

In fact, let’s start with Goldman Sachs (Symbol: GS). It’s share price is still $80 short of its high of $200 during the summer, but Buffet’s investment in the company has caused other investors to take note, and the stock today jumped by $7 as a result. This is at least partially the result of increased consumer confidence caused by Buffet’s investment, and I’d be willing to bet that Buffet’s support is going to snowball, leading Goldman Sachs to a recovery. At this point, Buffet is regarded as such a financial guru that his picks end up prospering because of increased consumer confidence. So go with the flow on this and take a chance on Buffet. You could put your trust in someone much, much worse.

You might also want to look into the fast food industry. Of course McDonald’s is still the leader of the pack, but I’m still partial to Burger King, and it’s not because of their onion rings. Burger King’s report of their fourth quarter earnings topped the estimate, and though the price has suffered a little bit due to the crisis, they still appear to be performing strong.  Their recent drop in stock price means that you can get a discount on an otherwise strong stock, and I feel confident that it will be a strong performer in the next quarter.

Some of the Silicon Valley stars, such as Amazon and Google, have also suffered in the wake of the recent crisis. The biggest loser was Apple (Nasdaq Symbol: AAPL), whose stock declined over $20 in the past week. It’s starting to come back, but for now you can still get a stock that is close to $200 for about $120. Given their recent string of successes, you’re going to want to get this one before the price climbs again.

If you’re really looking to invest in Google, now is the time. The stock is still not cheap, but it’s not often that you can get a stock that regularly flirts with a $500 price tag for about $400. Google is similar to Apple in that it is steadily branching out. With Google launching its new chrome Web browser, and its attempt to challenge the iPhone with its T-Mobile partnership, you’re going to want to take advantage of this stock drop. Amazon’s (Nasdaq symbol: AMZ) drop is less severe than Apple or Google’s, but it’s still a chance to pick up a generally strong performer for about $10 less than you normally would.

Quiet Positive Performers -- Inferior Goods and Others

I have to admit, I don’t know why Campbell’s (Symbol: CPB) went up on Sept. 29 when most other stocks went down, but I can hazard a guess. Cambell’s is an “inferior good,” or a staple good that decreases in value as income rises. Given the overall state of the economy, it’s not hard to see why people are deciding to get back to the basics, such as cheap soup.

Regardless of their status as an inferior good,  I will say they fulfill my criteria for a solid stock--Campbell’s soup is a recognized leader in their field, and their stock price, while it did drop significantly at the end of the 1999, has been slowly but steadily improving since. They also have the benefit of not being connected to the whole subprime mortgage and subsequent collapse of the banking industry mess. Perhaps Campbell’s won’t soar to Google-esque heights, but then again they don’t need to. All their stock has to do is rise in value, and it’s done a pretty good job so far.

I wouldn’t call Proctor and Gamble’s (Symbol: PG) products inferior goods, but they do focus on smaller luxury items, as well as staples such as medicines and cleaning supplies. I’m pretty sure that most people don’t consider beauty products to be luxury items, or at least not luxury items that are too expensive for them right now, and I’m confident that no one is going to stop buying health and cleaning products. So Proctor and Gamble should be safe. Again, this is a stock that consistently performs, and you can get it for around $70 a share.

Finally, you might also want to take a look at buying stock in Heinz (Symbol: HNZ). Like Campbell’s, it’s a leader in its field, and the crisis on Wall Street hasn’t bothered it much. The stock costs around $50.

Chris Gottschalk
Analyst, Oxbury Research
www.oxburyresearch.com

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