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HAS THE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET GOT ITS GROOVE BACK?
New York, N.Y., March 31, 2009-- John T. Connor, Portfolio Manager of Third Millennium Russia Fund (TMRFX), shares his view that among emerging markets, Russia's was the best performing last month. "Russia's general market decline of over 74% during 2008 was the world's most dramatic impact in the market, but, in the year after such declines, emerging markets funds have typically experienced their highest growth spurts," Mr. Connor stated.
Mr. Connor also catalogued the following:
- Following a 24% decline, the Russian currency, the Ruble, has stabilized. "And a lower Ruble benefits Russia's exports," commented Mr. Connor.
- The price of oil is projected at $55-60 and Russia is again enjoying a trade surplus, adding to its reserves after a sharp expenditure to support its currency and economy.
- Fertilizer and steel exports are showing signs of strength as farmers and construction projects in south and East Asia continue purchases.
- Commodities in general are way down from historic highs but appear somewhat stable at still high prices.
Mr. Connor also believes "Overall Russia's macroeconomic strengths – relative to others – are evident: trade and payments surpluses, little government debt (at 6% of GDP among the lowest: Brazil at 55% and India at 50%), still big FX reserves and low interest rates."
"But the Russian economy is currently contracting, unemployment is rising which vitiates consumer demand and corporate debt is troublesome, although the worst quarter is now behind us," he said. "The near term in 2009 and 2010 is about half as bad as Q4 '08, and the projected corporate cash flows in the near term are about twice debt service required."
Connor noted that foreign investors literally dumped Russian stocks at the time of the Georgian hostilities last August. "But it is now clear that Russia did not initiate those hostilities. In any event, the fact that Russia is unloved may be a here and now investment opportunity," Mr. Connor concluded, noting the low current market valuations.
About Third Millennium Russia Fund
Third Millennium Russia Fund (OTC: TMRFX) is an open-ended mutual fund focusing on the oil sector, utilities, telecom and a broad selection of other audited, market leading public companies. John Connor, named No. 1 US Portfolio Manager in the Annual Barron's ranking, has been involved in Russia for more than 25 years running an insurance company in Russia, acting as deputy director of the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of East-West Trade, and establishing and heading the Moscow office of the US-USSR Trade and Economic Council. Third Millennium Russia Fund is available through TDAmeritrade and Charles Schwab & Company. For more information on Third Millennium Russia Fund, visit their Web site at: www.tmrussia.com, or call 1-800-527-9525.
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