Living off the fat of the land – the low carb transformation.

By Allen R. Gibson
2004

After thirty years off scoffing at The Atkins Diet as unscientific hogwash, the low carb diet has some unexpected new friends – and we don’t mean the millions of Americans who are enthusiastically participating in the low carb craze. Science, it seems, is starting to agree with what millions of Americans already get – it takes off pounds.

A question remains about what the long term health effects of the low carb dietary approach are going to be. But part of the reason it’s such a mystery is that no one has bothered to study it until recently. Science, it seems, doesn’t like testing theories that fly in the face of accepted ‘truths.” One researcher noted that just a few years ago he was jeered by the crowd at a scientific convention for having the temerity to even present data about the Atkins diet.

For over 25 years, science and industry have bought in to the idea that a lo-fat diet meant, well, less fat. On people.

What lo-fat was actually scientifically proven to help, however, was in reducing heart disease, and some forms of cancer. The high carb diets that America has pursued in the belief they would make us slim, have in fact made us fatter.

An exceptionally well-researched article by science reporter Gary Taubes, (link: http://128.121.190.176/article6.htm ) who’s made a career out of debunking scientific myopia, explores the controversies that still surround the weight question.

Basically, he concludes that the very scientists who created the lo-fat belief system in America are now, somewhat shamefacedly, admitting that not only were they wrong, but that far more work needs to be done to truly understand the complex interactions between the body and the brain that make up our sense of hunger, the way we eat, and where the calories end up.

What makes us fat?

During the past twenty-five years, when lo-fat was THE concept among dieters and nutritionists, Americans ate far less fat and far more carbohydrates, according to the USDA. Incredibly, annual grain consumption increased by almost 60 pounds per person, and caloric sweeteners (mostly high-fructose corn syrup) by another 30 pounds!

The 80’s saw the introduction of dozens of new drinks blasted through with sugar, but 100 percent fat free. When it comes to insulin and blood sugar, these soft drinks and fruit juices—what scientists call ‘‘wet carbohydrates’’ —might be part of the obesity problem. Sugar and corn syrup from soft drinks, juices, teas and sports drinks now supply more than 10 percent of our total calories! Small wonder then that water has once again become popular. It is now the 2nd most consumed beverage in the US, after soda pop.

At issue is how carbs, fat, and proteins interact in our bodies biochemistry. And what’s happened is that Americans have been stocking up on what you might call a ‘double-whammy’ of lots of carbs and lots of sugars. Trouble is, carbs basically translate to sugars inside us. More sugar, more ups and downs in our blood sugar and insulin chemistry, more cravings, more hunger, more carb and sugar intake, more fat. Not a scientific explanation, certainly, but you get the idea. And part of the problem is our bodies get used to whatever chemical reactions we force them into day after day.

By switching to a la-carb diet, we force the body to use new chemical processes to handle the food. And because proteins take longer to digest, and use more energy to do so over a longer period of time, one of the results can be less hunger pangs and great weight loss. According to five separate studies, in fact, twice the weight loss of a traditional lo-fat diet.

Welcome to one of the greatest shifts in consumer eating habits in decades – the low carb diet is here to stay!

Low Carb – Hi-profit!

This massive shift in consumer lifestyles is reshaping the food industry as staples, such as bread and orange juice, sales decline, while demand increases for meats and cheeses and low carb versions of pretty much everything. Coca-Cola, ever alert to consumer beverage trends, is introducing a low carb, lo-sugar version of Coke this summer called CokeC2.

Analysts predict that this year alone, low carb products and services sales will hit $25 Billion, a $10 Billion increase from a year ago!

Johnson & Johnson, which makes the sugar substitute Splenda used in many low carb items, said the sweetener is behind a big jump in earnings.

Most supermarkets now feature low carb sections. Hundreds of new products are flooding on to the market. Kraft Foods this month launched a range of lower-carb foods, including fudge brownies and snack bars. low carb barbecue sauces and salad dressings are also coming. Frito-Lay, the convenience-foods arm of PepsiCo, is launching low-carb versions of its Doritos and Tostitos (sales of the full-carb versions are nearly $3 billion a year).

Michelob’s ULTRA low carb beer has already been far more successful than Anheuser-Busch expected. And when the two biggest brewers in America start fighting it out in their TV commercials as to whose beer is really low carb, you know the issue has gone mainstream!

Macdonald’s have made significant changes to their business – phasing out the ‘super-size’ meal, and introducing an adult ‘happy mean’ that has a salad, bottled water, and a booklet on walking tips! Hype? Hardly. April sales were up over ten percent from a year earlier at its 30,000 outlets.

A key to having success in this new low carb environment, however, is taste. Well aware of the risks of obesity, Americans still want taste. The opportunities for companies that can create low carb products with lots of flavor, or products that may even reduce carb cravings like ‘Skinny Water,’ are likely to find a ready market in the $40 Billion US market for slimming products.

And it isn’t just food makers that are set to cash in. Drug companies are also looking to provide the magic diet pill. Shares in UK Biotech Alizyme soared when it announced its new anti fat drug had similar efficacy and fewer side effects than other drugs on the market.

And even if the Atkins diet loses favor over time, the latest best-seller is “The South Beach Diet.” It too touts the low carb approach, as will a string of further diet books to come in the months ahead. The first low carb magazine hits stands soon.

Is there a downside?

Well, of course there is – if you’re the makers of “Wonder Bread!”

Interstate Bakeries Corp. CEO James Elsesser, who does make Wonder Bread, said recently, "We see downward pressures across most sectors of our business, as do our competitors."

Even diet companies are not immune. Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch consumer-products giant, says Atkins has eaten into its profits. It is one reason why sales of its SlimFast brand have been hurting, the company admitted recently.

Krispy Kreme issued a profit warning recently, and put part of the blame on this trend. In May, one of the country’s leading pasta makers, New World Pasta, filed for bankruptcy protection.

And the risks aren’t only to business. Doctors still warn that any diet high in saturated fats can lead to heart disease and kidney problems.

There is no free lunch! For low carb dieters who see the latest data as an excuse to eat the entire crustless cheesecake because it’s ‘lo-fat’, they’re still getting all the calories. And, ultimately, too many calories, from whatever source they come, are going to make you fat.

But until Americans eat less and exercise more, the business opportunities in responding to our obesity are going to be – dare I say it? – HUGE.

Allen R. Gibson

Allen R. Gibson has over twenty-five years of experience in media and corporate communications. He has been a reporter, television producer, and marketing communications consultant for public companies in both the US and Canada.

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